Good morning!
Soybeans pressured by limit-down soyoil... Soybeans faced heavy pressure overnight from limit-down trade in soyoil amid concerns the renewable diesel target for next year may be lower than expected and sharply lower trade in crude oil. Corn and wheat faced lighter selling overnight. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny lower, soybeans are 13 to 15 cents lower and wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is down nearly 200 points and front-month crude oil futures are about $2.20 lower.
China suspends rare earths export curbs on U.S. amid trade thaw... China has suspended its export controls on rare earths and other dual-use goods targeting 28 U.S. entities, Bloomberg Government reported. The 90-day pause, effective immediately, is part of a broader trade de-escalation agreement between Washington and Beijing. According to China’s ministry of commerce, exporters can now apply for licenses to resume shipments, reversing the bans imposed in early April.
Trump claims India offered tariff-free trade deal... President Donald Trump says New Delhi offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods, according to Bloomberg. This would mark a potential breakthrough in bilateral trade talks as India looks to avoid steep U.S. tariffs. India has not commented on the claim, and Trump provided no specifics on the scope or timing of the proposed deal. Also, Trump mentioned nothing about nontariff trade barriers relative to India, despite any potential move to zero out tariffs. As of now, no formal agreement has been announced, but the momentum signals that India is positioning itself strategically to avoid tariffs and preserve export access to the U.S. market.
WTO chief warns U.S. bilateral tariff deals threaten core trade principles... The head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has issued a pointed warning that the United States’ recent turn toward bilateral tariff deals risks undermining the foundational principle of non-discrimination in global trade, known as the “most favored nation” (MFN) principle. This principle ensures that WTO members extend equal trading terms to all other members, preventing preferential treatment through exclusive deals. Okonjo-Iweala warned that the proliferation of bilateral tariff arrangements could fracture the international trading system into rival blocs, particularly if the U.S. and China de-couple. WTO projections suggest that if the U.S. fully reinstates expanded tariffs, global trade could contract by as much as 1.5% – the steepest decline since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended May 8, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 900,000-1,500,000 | 1,662,516 | 350,000-600,000 | 18,000 |
| Wheat | (200,000)-100,000 | 69,659 | 350,000-600,000 | 492,978 |
| Soybeans | 200,000-500,000 | 376,653 | 350,000-500,000 | 9,758 |
| Soymeal | 90,000-300,000 | 111,896 | 0-50,000 | 10,317 |
| Soyoil | 0-24,000 | 14,606 | 0-10,000 | 1,105 |
Day 2 HRW wheat tour results: Above-average yield potential with variability and disease issues... On Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRW wheat tour, scouts found an average yield of 53.3 bu. per acre on samples taken from western and south-central Kansas. That was up from last year’s tour yield of 42.4 bu. on similar routes and the five-year average of 42.3 bu. per acre. Scouts continued to find wide variability, with many fields infected with wheat streak mosaic. Scouts will sample fields in southeastern and eastern Kansas today on routes from Wichita to Manhattan. A final tour yield estimate along with a scout guesstimate of Kansas crop size will be released this afternoon.
NOPA soy crush expected to slow in April but still be record-large for the month... Analysts polled by Reuters expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 184.6 million bu. of soybeans during April. That would be down 9.9 million bu. (5.1%) from March but up 15.2 million bu. (9.0%) from year-ago and a record for the month. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members at the end of April were projected to fall to 1.412 billion pounds.
Exchange raises Argentine soybean crop forecast... The Rosario Grain Exchange now estimates the country’s soybean production at 48.5 MMT, up 3 MMT from its previous estimate. The exchanges first forecast for 2025-26 wheat production is 21 MMT, which would be up from 18.5 MMT in 2024-25.
Strategie Grains raises EU wheat production forecast... Strategie Grains raised its estimate for this year’s soft wheat production in the European Union, despite concern about dryness in the northern part of the bloc. The firm now pegs this year’s EU wheat production at 129.8 MMT, up 1.7 MMT from last month’s forecast and 16.6 MMT (14.7%) above year-ago. It noted strong yield potential in Spain, Romania and Bulgaria. However, dryness in northern France, Germany, Scandinavia and Poland needs to be closely monitored, as that could trim “several million tons” off production if conditions persist.
Ukraine maintains grain production forecast despite poor weather... Ukraine’s ag ministry kept its 2025 grain production forecast 56 MMT, despite unfavorable weather since early April. That would be virtually unchanged from last year’s output of 56.2 MMT. The ag ministry plans to revise its production forecast in June. The state weather bureau said as a result of drought and frequent and prolonged frosts, significant damage or drying of up to 40% of winter wheat crops was observed in some areas of southern regions.
Japan may double rice reserve sales to rein in prices... Japan’s government is studying releasing 100,000 MT of reserve rice per month through July, in addition to 321,000 MT auctioned in three tranches between March and April, according to Kyodo News. Rice prices fell for the first time in 18 weeks, though they remain historically high. Japan’s law on use of stockpiled rice only mentions sharp production falls as a reason for releasing it, though the ag ministry decided to release stocks on condition that the same amount of rice is bought back within a year. The government and some lawmakers of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are considering relaxing the buyback requirement, as the rule is seen as discouraging rice distributors from participating in auctions out of fear that they may not be able to sell rice back if they face a potential shortage.
Reconciliation: House panels approve GOP packages... The House Ways & Means, Energy and Commerce and Ag panels approved their respective reconciliation measures on Wednesday. The committees’ approved sections will be sent to the House Budget Committee, which is scheduled to assemble the full reconciliation package for a floor vote. The House ag reconciliation bill would reduce the deficit by $296 billion over 10 years — exceeding the $230 billion target in the budget resolution — largely by reshaping the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Reference prices for all covered commodities beginning with 2025 crops would rise by 10% to 20%, increasing potential farm payments. Beginning with the 2031 crop year, the reference price will automatically increase by 0.5% each year. However, it cannot be higher than 15% of the original reference price, which would take about 20 plus years to hit that mark based on this small adjustment. Three major conservation programs would see increased funding through FY 2031: Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP), Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) and Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP).
China’s new bank loans plummet in April... Chinese banks extended 280 billion yuan ($38.87 billion) in new yuan loans in April, plummeting from March’s 3.64 trillion yuan and the lowest since July 2024. Banks extended a total of 10.06 trillion yuan in new loans in the first four months, down from 10.19 trillion yuan in the same period last year. Total outstanding yuan loans rose at a record-low annual pace of 7.2% in April. Total social financing, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, also tumbled sharply in April.
Cattle market top or corrective trade?... June live cattle futures posted a key bearish reversal and filled Monday’s update chart gap during Wednesday’s session – a potential warning sign of a market top. But it’s going to take more than one day’s price action to signal a major market top. Key will be if buyers show up under the market by week’s end, as has been the case on previous “topping” action on the daily charts.
June hogs take over as lead month at sizable premium... June lean hog futures assumed lead-month status at a $8.08 premium to the CME lean hog index quote of $90.77 as of May 13. That implies traders anticipate a steady rise in the index over the next month as slaughter supplies tighten seasonally. After a three-day slide, the index has risen 85 cents the last three days.
Overnight demand news... Saudi Arabia tendered to buy 655,000 MT of optional origin wheat.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 11:00 a.m. Monthly Soybean Crush — NOPA
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS