Good morning!
Varied tone in grains overnight... Corn and the winter wheat markets posted mild gains overnight, while soybeans and spring wheat traded lower. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading fractionally to 2 cents higher, soybeans are mostly 5 to 6 cents lower, winter wheat markets are 2 to 3 cents higher and spring wheat is around 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is 250 points higher and front-month crude oil futures are around $1.40 lower.
Chinese state media: U.S. wants to start tariff talks with China... The U.S. has approached China seeking talks over President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media said on Thursday. “The U.S. has proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to hold discussions on the tariff issue,” Yuyuan Tantian said in a post published on its official Weibo social media account, citing anonymous sources. However, Chinese officials continue to publicly deny any formal negotiations are currently underway. Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, reiterated: “To the best of my knowledge, there have been no discussions or negotiations between China and the U.S. concerning tariffs.” China is deliberately holding off on re-engaging in formal trade negotiations with the U.S. as it assesses who in Trump’s inner circle will prevail on tariff policy, according to the South China Morning Post, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter. “There is no clear sign which clique will win,” said one Beijing-based source with knowledge of internal discussions. “Why reveal your cards when you don’t even know who your opponent will eventually be?” Despite the uncertainty, Beijing still regards Trump as the “most powerful figure in the foreseeable future,” according to one senior official. But for now, China’s message is clear: it will not negotiate under conditions of ambiguity — or weakness.
EU to propose trade barrier cuts, investment boost in U.S. amid tariff tensions... The European Union (EU) is preparing to present a sweeping trade proposal to the U.S. next week aimed at lowering tariffs, encouraging European investment in the U.S. and restoring transatlantic economic ties amid mounting trade tensions. Key elements of the proposal include a potential “zero-for-zero” deal removing tariffs on key industrial goods like autos, chemicals and machinery, measures to make the U.S. more attractive to European investors, including regulatory cooperation, joint efforts to address global trade issues such as Chinese overcapacity and trade imbalances and potential EU commitments to import more U.S. LNG and tech products. EU leaders, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are pushing for a tariff-free deal while retaining the option to impose countermeasures.
U.S., Ukraine strike deal to share mineral revenues amid war uncertainty... The Trump administration announced a deal with Ukraine to jointly manage and share future revenues from Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves, establishing a bilateral investment fund. The agreement, signed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Deputy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, is part of Trump’s broader aim to tie U.S. economic interests to Ukraine’s postwar recovery while avoiding explicit security guarantees. Under the agreement, a joint U.S./Ukraine fund will invest in mining and reconstruction, with equal voting rights; Ukraine retains legal control of its resources with profits to be reinvested domestically; and U.S. companies are expected to gain access to Ukraine’s critical minerals sector.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended April 24, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 700,000-1,500,000 | 1,152,872 | 0-200,000 | 0 |
| Wheat | (200,000)-300,000 | (145,016) | 100,000-400,000 | 371,712 |
| Soybeans | 150,000-600,000 | 277,012 | 0-100,000 | (120) |
| Soymeal | 150,000-400,000 | 170,887 | 0-50,000 | 5,291 |
| Soyoil | 4,000-25,000 | 12,380 | 0-5,000 | 0 |
Soybean crush, corn-for-ethanol use expected to rebound in March... Soybean crush is expected to total 205.9 million bu. for March, according to analysts polled by Bloomberg. That would be up 16.9 million bu. (8.9%) from February and 2.4 million bu. (1.2%) above March 2024. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to total 459.9 million bu., up 32.7 million bu. (7.8%) from February but down 12.2 million bu. (2.6%) from last year.
Turkey opens zero-tariff corn import quota to stabilize prices... Turkey’s trade ministry announced a 1 MMT zero-tariff corn import quota effective until the end of July. The move is intended to help stabilize domestic prices ahead of the harvest. This follows a similar allocation in March, when Turkey opened another 1 MMT duty-free quota for corn imports.
North China Plain dryness becoming more significant... Dryness has become more notable in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin as well as in areas as far to the north as Inner Mongolia and southward to the northern Yangtze River Basin. World Weather Inc. says non-irrigated winter wheat development conditions may be deteriorating, though a large portion of the crop is irrigated. The dryness may have a bigger impact on spring and summer crop planting and establishment, although there is still plenty of time for the weather to change. Forecasts call for drier-than-usual conditions across the North China Plain and central Yellow River Basin through the middle of next week. There is potential for some spotty rainfall May 8-14 as disturbances track near or into the region, however, resulting rainfall will be too light to significantly improve the moisture profile, according to World Weather.
FSA to require DOGE approval for some loans... USDA’s Farm Service Agency will now need approval from the Department of Government Efficiency to issue loans over $500,000, according to a memo seen by Reuters. The April 29 memo sent by Houston Bruck, deputy administrator for farm loan programs, said that the new policy requiring clearance from the Office of the Secretary and DOGE for some lending is in compliance with an executive order on government cost efficiency. Under the policy, which went into effect on Wednesday, all loans and guarantees of $500,000 or more and to “formal entities” like corporations will need to be approved by the two offices, the memo said. Direct farm loans made to farmers by FSA have a borrowing cap of $600,000. Guaranteed farm loans, which are financed by commercial banks with FSA backing, are capped at $2.2 million. USDA said such reviews do not cause undue delay and that most direct aid to individuals is exempt from the process.
U.S., Mexico strike deal to resume joint eradication of screwworm... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an agreement with Mexico to resume collaborative eradication efforts targeting the deadly New World screwworm (NWS). Under the deal, Mexico will lift restrictions on USDA aircraft and waive customs duties on eradication equipment, allowing uninterrupted cross-border cooperation. As a result, livestock ports will remain open — though U.S. authorities may revisit closures if Mexico fails to uphold the terms. An official with the National Confederation of Livestock Organizations, a Mexican organization that represents ranchers and livestock producers, says cattle crossings from Mexico are slow and there are around 300,000 calves that are backed up.
BOJ keeps rates steady, cuts growth forecasts... The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining the highest level since 2008. The unanimous decision came amid rising concerns that U.S. tariff measures could dampen both economic growth. BOJ lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.1% projected in January, citing trade risks and policy uncertainty. The 2026 growth outlook was also reduced to 0.7% from 1.0%.
Choice beef surge pauses... Wholesale Choice beef dropped $2.49 to $345.77 on Wednesday, halting the recent surge. Select beef dropped 67 cents to $323.15. Packer margins remain deep in the red, which has slowed cash cattle negotiations as they want to buy cattle at lower prices while feedlots have no urgency to move animals unless bids increase.
Traders narrow hog futures’ premiums... Lean hog futures weakened Wednesday, despite continued cash strength as traders narrowed premiums. The CME lean hog index is up another 47 cents to $89.25 as of April 29. As of Wednesday’s close, May hogs held a $2.675 premium while June futures finished $9.025 above today’s index quote.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 1:00 p.m. Annual Milk Production and Factors Affecting Supply — ERS
- 1:00 p.m. Commodity Costs and Returns — ERS
- 1:00 p.m. Milk Cost of Production Estimates — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Cotton System Consumption and Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Flour Milling Products — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Flour Milling Products - Annual Summary — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS