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Corn and beans mildly firmer, wheat weaker this morning... Corn futures faced pressure for much of the overnight session but have rebounded to slight gains this morning. Soybeans are also mildly firmer while wheat is under pressure. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny higher, soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher and wheat futures are 2 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is up nearly 400 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 35 cents higher.
Trump/Xi call expected this week amid trade tensions... President Donald Trump is “likely” to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday, as tensions escalate following accusations from both sides of violating a recent trade truce. A senior U.S. official told Bloomberg the White House still sees a narrow path to de-escalation but warned that “patience is wearing thin.” Meanwhile, China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier He Lifeng, is signaling a new era in Beijing’s standoff with Washington — one defined by strategic leverage, fewer concessions and deep alignment with Xi’s hardline economic vision, the Wall Street Journal reports. At the heart of the shift is He’s management of China’s rare-earth mineral exports, a key bargaining chip in the ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration. While He agreed in mid-May to resume these exports as part of a 90-day trade truce, he has since slow-walked license approvals — prompting U.S. accusations of backpedaling and threatening to unravel the fragile ceasefire. Of note: China’s negotiators — including Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang — are expected to offer U.S. purchases of ag goods and energy in upcoming talks. But they will resist structural reforms or deeper discussions about China’s industrial policy.
U.S. issues ‘tough’ trade demands to Vietnam, who pledges more U.S. ag buys... The U.S. has presented Vietnam with a “long” and “tough” list of demands as part of ongoing trade negotiations aimed at averting sweeping new tariffs, multiple sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. According to four individuals briefed on the matter, the U.S. framework includes an annex with extensive requests — delivered at the end of May following the second round of talks — some of which would require Vietnam to drastically reduce its reliance on Chinese-made industrial components. One source said the U.S. side is pressing Vietnam to more tightly control its production and supply chains, though it is unclear if any numeric targets were proposed. Meanwhile, Vietnamese officials have pledged to boost purchases of American goods, including farm products and energy. The agriculture ministry announced deals worth $2 billion, with $800 million of that focused on corn, wheat and soybean meal from Iowa. Beyond agriculture, Vietnam has pledged to increase imports of other U.S. products — such as Boeing aircraft and liquefied natural gas — and to crack down on digital piracy and counterfeit goods following U.S. complaints that the country has become a hub for such violations.
U.S./India trade deal appears closer... Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he expects a trade agreement with India in the “not-too-distant future,” signaling progress after months of negotiation amid tariff disputes. Speaking at the U.S./India Strategic Partnership Forum’s Annual Leadership Summit, Lutnick emphasized that both countries had made meaningful strides. While acknowledging India’s history of protectionist tariffs, Lutnick said the goal was to reduce them to a “reasonable and appropriate” level to enable smoother commercial flows between the two democracies. A deal would likely aim to boost industrial goods access, digital trade cooperation and investment flows, while addressing longstanding U.S. concerns over market barriers in India.
Modest improvement in corn CCI rating, big jump for spring wheat... USDA rated the corn crop as 69% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.2 points to 374.9, though that was still 10.7 points below last year at this time. USDA initially rated the soybean crop as 67% “good” to “excellent,” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop started the growing season with a 363.9 rating, 9.4 points below the initial rating last year. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 16.5 points to 345.3 behind a 17.6-point increase in top producer North Dakota. The CCI rating was still 33.3 points below year-ago. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of June 1:
- Corn: 69% good/excellent (68% last week); 93% planted (93% average); 78% emerged (77% average).
- Soybeans: 67% good/excellent; 84% planted (80% average); 63% emerged (57% average).
- Spring wheat: 50% good/excellent (45% last week); 95% planted (90% average); 73% emerged (69% average).
- Winter wheat: 52% good/excellent (50% last week); 83% headed (79% average); 3% harvested (3% average).
- Cotton: 49% good/excellent; 66% planted (69% average); 8% squaring (7% average).
USDA releases data-only outlook for U.S. ag trade... USDA on Monday released a stripped-down version of its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade — nearly a week late and without the usual narrative analysis. The report projects fiscal year (FY) 2025 exports at $170.5 billion and imports at a record $220.0 billion, yielding a slightly higher agricultural trade deficit of $49.5 billion. Notably absent from this update was any commentary on trade drivers, partner breakdowns or import origin details. Key export shifts include a cut to China’s forecast — now pegged at $18.5 billion, down from $22 billion, reinforcing its slide to a distant third among U.S. ag buyers. Mexico remains the top destination at $30 billion, followed by Canada at $27.4 billion. The European Union saw a modest increase to $13.2 billion, while trade with the UK edged up to $2.3 billion.
OECD slashes global economic growth forecast... Global economic growth is expected to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said, trimming its estimates from March of 3.1% this year and 3.0% next year. OECD warned the growth outlook would be even weaker if protectionism increases, further fueling inflation, disrupting supply chains and rattling financial markets. OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann said if the U.S. raised bilateral tariffs by an additional 10 percentage points on all countries as compared with the rates in force as of mid-May, global economic output would be about 0.3 percentage points lower after two years. OECD forecasts the U.S. economy would grow 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year, assuming tariffs in place mid-May would remain so through the rest of 2025 and 2026, down from its prior outlook for growth of 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year. The group calls for China’s economy to grow 4.7% this year and 4.3% in 2026, down 0.1 point for both years from its prior outlook. The outlook for the euro area was unchanged from March with growth forecast this year at 1.0% and 1.2% next year.
Ukraine’s grain production may fall 10% as ‘difficult season awaits’... Ukraine may produce around 51 MMT of grain and 20.16 MMT of oilseeds this year, Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval said based on the most pessimistic forecasts. Koval said Ukraine could harvest around 26 MMT of corn, 20 MMT to 22 MMT of wheat, 4.5 MMT of barley, 1.5 MMT of minor grains, 11.5 MMT of sunflower seeds and 11 MMT of sugar beets. “A difficult season awaits us. An abnormally warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the harvest,” Koval told Reuters. “The most negative forecast is minus 10%. According to expectations the harvest of grain is minus 10%, oilseeds minus 5%.”
Record cold temps impact Brazil’s safrinha corn... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier said he was prepared to increase his Brazilian corn crop estimate another 1 MMT to 2 MMT after recent rains benefited late safrinha corn. However, record low temps last Friday and Saturday in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo may have damaged safrinha corn that is still filling. Cordonnier says how much damage, if any, is yet to be determined. As a result, he left his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 129 MMT. He also left his estimate of Brazilian soybeans at 169 MMT, while the forecasts for Argentine production remained at 48.5 MMT for soybeans and 50 MMT for corn.
India’s edible oils imports surge in May, led by palm oil... India’s palm oil imports in May surged 87% from April to a six-month high of 600,000 MT, as lower inventories and a price discount to rival soyoil and sunflower oil prompted refiners to increase purchases. Soyoil imports rose 10% to 398,000 MT and sunflower oil imports increased 2% to 184,000 MT.
China’s private factory gauge contracts in May... The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, marking the first contraction since last September and the steepest decline since September 2022. Output shrank for the first time in 19 months and at the fastest pace since November 2022, while new orders contracted at the sharpest rate since September 2022. Foreign sales fell to their lowest level since July 2023. As we reported yesterday, official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May from the 16-month low of 49.0 in April, though that still marked the second straight month of contraction.
Brazil rules out HPAI on commercial farm in RGDS... Test results for a suspected outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on a commercial farm in the town of Anta Gorda in Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS) state came back negative, Brazil’s ag ministry said. It was the only case currently under investigation on a commercial farm in the country. Brazil previously discovered an HPAI outbreak on a commercial farm in RGDS. On May 22, Brazilian authorities declared a 28-day HPAI observation period following the full disinfection of the farm where the first outbreak was detected. Brazil hopes that by the end of the observation period the country’s chicken farms can be free of HPAI, provided no new cases are confirmed.
Cash cattle showing no signs of slowing... Cash cattle averaged a record $229.94 last week, up $2.97 from the previous week. Cash prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks, with the last six being records. Over the past seven weeks, cash prices have surged more than $22.00.
Cash hog index continues to strengthen... The CME lean hog index is up another $1.06 to $95.90 as of May 30, marking the biggest daily gain in the seasonal rise. Pork cutout slipped 47 cents to $106.75 on Monday, though prices remain at the highest since August 2023.
Overnight demand news... Algeria tendered to buy up to 240,000 MT of optional origin corn.
Today’s reports
· No reports scheduled.