Good morning!
Grains weaker overnight... Corn futures pulled back from Monday’s corrective gains overnight, while soybeans and wheat extended their losses. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn, soybean and winter wheat markets are trading 2 to 3 cents lower, while spring wheat is near unchanged. The U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures are both modestly weaker.
Cordonnier raises corn, soybean yield forecasts... Weather conditions through the first half of July have been “nearly ideal” and the corn crop is “on its way to a record yield.” Therefore, crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his corn yield 2 bu. to 182 bu. per acre, increasing his corn production forecast to 15.79 billion bushels. While soybean conditions aren’t quite as high and key August weather lies ahead, Cordonnier raised his soybean yield 1 bu. to 52.5 bu. per acre, increasing his production forecast to 4.33 billion bushels.
Corn, soybean and spring wheat CCI ratings improve... USDA rated the corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 70% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 54% “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.4 points to 383.4, now 10 points above last year at this time. The soybean crop improved 3.5 points to 367.2 and is now 3.0 points above year-ago. The spring wheat rating increased 6.2 points to 357.7, though that’s still 26.3 points below year-ago. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of July 13:
- Corn: 74% good/excellent (74% last week); 34% silking (33% average); 7% dough (5% average).
- Soybeans: 70% good/excellent (66% last week); 47% blooming (47% average); 15% setting pods (14% average).
- Spring wheat: 54% good/excellent (50% last week); 78% headed (75% average).
- Winter wheat: 63% harvested (64% average).
- Cotton: 54% good/excellent (52% last week); 61% squaring (62% average); 23% setting bolls (22% average).
Record June NOPA crush expected despite slowdown... The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report its members crushed 185.2 million bu. of soybeans in June, according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 4% from May and the smallest figure in four months, but up 5.5% from last year and a record for the month. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of June 30 were projected at 1.374 billion pounds.
Cordonnier raises Brazilian corn production forecast... Record safrinha corn yields are being reported in top producer Mato Grosso and other areas of central Brazil, while results are better than expected in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. Therefore, Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn production forecast 2 MMT to 134 MMT.
IKAR trims Russian wheat production, export forecasts... Russia’s IKAR consultancy trimmed its Russian wheat production forecast by 500,000 MT to 84 MMT due to lower yields in southern areas suffering from drought. Rostov, Russia’s top wheat producing region in 2024, may see the lowest wheat harvest since 2015 due to severe drought. IKAR also lowered its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 500,000 MT to 42 MMT.
France’s wheat production rebounds sharply... France’s ag ministry forecasts this year’s soft wheat production at 32.6 MMT, up 6.93 MMT (27%) from last year’s crop that was the lowest since the 1980s. Wheat production is expected to be 2.4% above the five-year average that included two poor crops.
U.S. tariffs on Mexican tomatoes return... The Commerce Department said the U.S. was withdrawing from a 2019 agreement with Mexico that suspended an antidumping duty investigation on Mexican tomatoes. Most fresh tomato imports from Mexico will now face a 17.09% tariff. Mexico called the actions “unfair” and said it would help local tomato producers seek a deal to suspend the duty as well as support them in seeking new global markets.
USDA halts extra sugar imports, citing ‘Farmers First’ policy shift... USDA announced it will authorize no additional imports of specialty sugars beyond what is required by international agreements, marking a notable shift under Secretary Brooke Rollins’ “Farmers First” policy agenda. While current sugar policy aims to protect domestic growers from subsidized foreign competition, the sector is not immune to broader industry challenges.
China’s economy slows in Q2... China’s economy grew 5.2% annually in the second quarter, slowing from 5.4% GDP in the first quarter and the weakest pace since the third quarter of last year, though that was stronger than the expected rise of 5.1%. During the first half of this year, China’s economy grew 5.3%. Growth is projected to weaken during the second half of the year amid trade tensions ahead of the Aug. 12 tariff deadline, deflation pressures and a prolonged property downturn. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production grew a stronger than expected 6.8% in June, while retail sales increased a slower than anticipated 4.8%.
China’s Q2 pork production increases... China’s pork production in the second quarter rose 1.4% from last year to 14.18 MMT, boosted by higher slaughter weights and efficiency. A total of 366.19 million hogs were slaughtered in the first half of 2025, up 0.6% from a year earlier, which resulted in a 1.3% increase in pork product to 30.2 MMT. China’s pig herd rose to 424.47 million head at the end of the second quarter, up from 417.31 million in the first quarter.
Cash cattle surge, futures extend discount... Cash cattle averaged $237.21 last week, up $7.78 from the previous week and the second highest price on record. Despite the cash surge, August live cattle extended their discount to nearly $18.00 on Monday.
July hogs expire today... The CME lean hog index is up 15 cents to $107.25 as of July 11. July lean hog futures, which expire at noon CT today and are settled against the cash index on July 17, finished Monday at a 55-cent discount to today’s cash quote. August hogs finished Monday at a $4.025 discount.
Overnight demand news... Pakistan reduced the volume of white refined sugar sought in an international tender to 50,000 MT from an original 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Today’s reports
- 11:00 a.m. Monthly Soybean Crush — NOPA
- 1:00 p.m. Dairy Monthly Tables — ERS
- 1:00 p.m. Feed Grains Database — ERS
- 1:00 p.m. Meat Price Spreads — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Feed Outlook: July 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Oil Crops Outlook: July 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Rice Outlook: July 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Wheat Outlook: July 2025 — ERS