Good morning!
Corn and beans lower, wheat mostly weaker overnight... Corn, soybean and winter wheat markets faced price pressure overnight, while spring wheat favored the upside. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 8 cents lower, winter wheat markets are 3 to 4 cents lower and spring wheat is 2 to 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 450 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are about 75 cents lower.
Trump teases imminent trade deals, emphasizes personal role in negotiations... President Donald Trump signaled that new trade agreements may be announced as early as this week, asserting his personal control over the process. “We’re negotiating with many countries but at the end of this I’ll set my own deals because I set the deal, they don’t set the deal, I set the deal,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One. Trump called for a “fair” and “balanced” deal with China but confirmed he does not plan to speak directly with President Xi Jinping this week. “We’re talking to them — we’ll see what happens,” he said, suggesting potential announcements soon without committing to a timeline. Trump said trade talks with India are “progressing very well,” echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who added that the U.S. is “very close” to finalizing a deal. Negotiations with Japan and South Korea are also moving forward. Trump boasted that “we’ve completed up to 200 deals” in recent interviews, though no country-specific details were given. He said more information would come “in the next few weeks.” Analysts are skeptical about the scale and speed of the claimed 200 agreements. Trade experts note that such a volume of deals typically takes months or years to finalize. Still, momentum appears to be building with key partners like India and China, and selective announcements may be forthcoming.
Beijing dangles fentanyl cooperation to reopen U.S./China trade talks... China is signaling a possible thaw in U.S./China trade tensions by offering renewed cooperation on fentanyl enforcement — a strategic shift aimed at restarting stalled negotiations with the Trump administration. Beijing, previously firm in demanding tariff rollbacks before talks, is now showing openness to dialogue if the U.S. demonstrates “sincerity,” even as it denounces American “coercion.” The move follows reports first from the Wall Street Journal that top Chinese officials, including Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong, are considering direct talks with U.S. counterparts on fentanyl controls, potentially in a neutral location. Despite the diplomatic overtures, significant obstacles remain. Both sides are wary of appearing to concede first, and China continues to demand that the U.S. revoke its tariffs as a sign of good faith before talks can proceed. The Trump administration, meanwhile, maintains that China must take concrete action on fentanyl and trade practices before any tariff relief is considered.
Trump/Sheinbaum rift erupts over cartel fight... President Trump sharply criticized Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum after she rejected his proposal to deploy U.S. troops to combat drug cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum cited sovereignty concerns, declaring that “our territory is inviolable.” Trump responded that Sheinbaum declined due to fear, saying, “She’s so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk.” The escalating tensions threaten to unravel what had been one of Trump’s more stable bilateral relationships. Despite differences, Sheinbaum had previously managed to navigate Trump’s demands on trade and border enforcement, helping Mexico avoid the full brunt of “Liberation Day” tariffs. U.S. officials had also credited her administration for a sharp drop in migrant crossings at the southern border.
Trump downplays recession fears, calls economic pain a ‘transition period’ amid tariff fallout... In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, dismissed growing recession concerns linked to his aggressive tariff policies, calling current economic turbulence a temporary “transition period” and predicting the “greatest economic boom in history.” Despite a 0.3% GDP contraction in the first quarter and rising inflation, Trump insisted the U.S. economy would rebound stronger. Trump stated he is “comfortable” with a potential recession, framing it as part of a necessary shift toward revitalized domestic manufacturing. While Trump remains publicly optimistic, expert warnings highlight the risk of prolonged economic disruption and diminished U.S. trade leadership if current policies persist.
Plains get rains, western Corn Belt dry... Significant rainfall is expected from the west-central to southern areas of the Plains this week, bringing beneficial precip to the HRW crop. The upper Midwest and west-central Corn Belt will continue drier than usual through May 19, which will allow of rapid planting progress. Areas of the southern Mississippi and Tennessee river basins remain too wet.
Frost, drought in April were negative for Ukraine’s spring crops... Strong and prolonged frosts followed by unusually high temperatures and a lack of precipitation in April had a negative impact on the development of Ukrainian spring crops, state forecasters said. Frosts in early April covered a majority of Ukraine, while moisture deficits continued with only pockets of the country receiving normal or above-normal amounts during the month.
Ukraine drone strike hits major Russian grain terminal in Novorossiysk... Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s largest Black Sea grain terminal on Saturday, igniting a fire and damaging key infrastructure at the KSK facility in Novorossiysk, according to statements from regional officials and the terminal’s owner, Delo Group. The terminal, which handled over 10 MMT of grain in 2024 and has a storage capacity of 220,000 MT, sustained damage to three grain silos. Though the fire has been extinguished and operations resumed, the attack marks a significant escalation in Ukraine’s targeting of Russian export infrastructure.
The week ahead in Washington... Hearings on fiscal year (FY) 2025 and 2026 budget requests for major federal departments and agencies are a central agenda item in Congress. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is scheduled to testify before Congress this week as part of the fiscal year (FY) 2026 appropriations process – her first budget testimony since taking office. House committees are actively working on their assigned reconciliation instructions, with deadlines for producing legislative text set for the week of May 12. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference will be closely monitored for indications about possible rate cuts later this year. This afternoon’s Crop Progress Report from USDA highlighting winter wheat conditions and planting paces for spring-planted crops will be the focal point for agriculture.
OPEC+ to further speed up oil output hikes... OPEC+ will accelerate oil output hikes and could bring back as much as 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in production by November, five OPEC+ sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The group agreed to another 411,000-bpd production hike for June, taking the total it plans to release in April, May and June to nearly 1 million bpd.
Japan inspects Brazilian meat plants as beef market talks advance... A Japanese delegation is in Brazil to finalize the schedule and itinerary for inspecting meat processing facilities — an essential step toward opening Japan’s market to Brazilian beef exports. Meanwhile, Brazil’s meat lobby group ABPA said South Korea had exempted certain Brazilian pork imports from tariffs. Only Brazil’s southern state of Santa Catarina is authorized to ship pork products to South Korea, as it is the only state in the country internationally recognized as being free from foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination, ABPA said.
Will record cash cattle strength continue?... Cash cattle prices reached a record for a second straight week, though the official figure from USDA won’t be known until later this morning. While packer margins remain deep in the red, they are having to bid up for cattle to ensure enough beef supplies to meet retailer demand amid reduced slaughter runs.
Cash hog index continues to rise... The recent string or strength in the CME lean hog index continues, with it up another 12 cents to $89.69 as of May 1. However, that’s tied for the smallest daily advance during the 12-day span of gains that has totaled $4.60.
Weekend demand news... South Korea purchased one cargo (65,000 to 70,000 MT) of corn expected to be sourced from the United States. Taiwan tendered to buy 99,200 MT of U.S. milling wheat.
Today’s reports
- 10:00 a.m. Weekly Export Inspections — AMS
- 3:00 pm Crop Progress — NASS