GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 4 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: General strength was featured in overnight trade, though technical headwinds continue to curb heftier short-covering efforts. December corn futures did test the 20-day moving average, which has consistently served up resistance. Soybean futures are firmer, but continue to consolidate, though strong technical support should continue to limit sellers. Wheat futures are favoring the upside, though a push into technically overbought territory may pause a more earnest upside push.
Scouts on the third day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 199.57, bu. per acre in Illinois, down from 204.14 bu. last year but up from the three-year average of 196.19 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’ x 3’ square averaged 1,479.22, up from 1,419.11 last year and the three-year average of 1,313.14. Results were released for districts 1, 4 & 7 in western Iowa, with full results for Iowa set for release tonight at 8 p.m. CT, along with Minnesota.
Today, scouts will sample fields in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The Tour will conclude tonight in Rochester, Minnesota. Find Crop Tour updates on our website and by searching #pftour24 on X (formerly Twitter).
USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report through the week ended Aug. 14:
Corn: Net sales reductions of 27,100 MT for 2024-25, while new crop sales totaled 2.86 MMT. Old crop sales were within the expected pre-report range, while new-crop sales were well above the pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 2.0 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions 5,700 MT for 2024-25, while new-crop sales totaled 1.14 MMT. Old-crop sales were as expected, while new crop sales topped the pre-report range of 400,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
Wheat: Net wheat sales of 519,800 MT were reported for 2025-26, down 28% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average. Net sales were just within the pre-report range of 500,000 to 800,000 MT.
The latest FOMC minutes, out Wednesday afternoon, showed most Federal Reserve officials believe the risk to problematic inflation outweighs concerns over the U.S. labor market at their meeting last month, as trade tariffs fueled a growing divide within the Fed’s rate-setting committee. A majority of the 18 policymakers in attendance “judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks,” according to the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Several FOMC members emphasized that U.S. inflation has exceeded 2% for an extended period and that has increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation. Stock and financial markets have been quieter this week, ahead of the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium that gets into full swing today and is hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday morning and is expected to update the Fed’s monetary policy framework. Powell’s speech will be the economic highlight of the week for the marketplace and could provide a new perspective on how much FOMC support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September.
Asian oil refiners have been buying crude from farther afield, including the U.S., Brazil, and Nigeria, due in part to President Trump’s trade and foreign policy approach, reports Bloomberg. Despite the purchases of light, low-sulfur crudes, the market is bracing for a glut, with traders expecting a surplus of crude in the coming months, according to Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant, as reported by Bloomberg. “The expected glut is mainly due to OPEC+'s restoration of sidelined barrels and producers outside the alliance, such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, pumping more,” suggesting average global crude oil production is running ahead of demand growth.
CORN: December futures are up against resistance at the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $4.06 1/2, with broader resistance stemming from the July 18 high of $4.30 1/4. The 10-day moving average of $4.03 is initial support, and is backed by the psychological $4.00 level, and the August low of $3.92.
SOYBEANS: November futures continue to consolidate in sideways trade, with support at the 10-, 100-, 200-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered from $10.29 3/4 to $10.13 3/4. Resistance stands at $10.40 1/2, though greater resistance stems from the June 20 high of $10.74 1/4.
WHEAT: December futures are trading narrowly within the 20- and 10-day moving averages, trading at $5.35 1/2 and $5.28 3/4. Additional support lies at this week’s low of $5.17 ¼, while resistance stems from the June 20 high of $6.16 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady/higher.
HOGS: Sideways/lower.
CATTLE: Supply fundamentals continue to lead cattle prices higher, with surging wholesale values indicative of retailer demand and shortened supplies ahead of the Labor Day holiday. However, Choice boxed beef did decline modestly on Wednesday, down $1.35 to $405.85, while Select rose $3.40 to $383.16, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $22.69. Movement totaled 102 loads. Meanwhile, cash trade continues to prove light so far, which isn’t uncommon ahead of USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report.
HOGS: Hogs continue to hold a sideways pattern, with buyers leery about breaching resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, while strong support lies at $88.98 and is backed by the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Fading cash and pork fundamentals have also limited buyer interest, with today’s projected cash price down another 49 cents to $108.57. However, futures’ discount to cash should also lend near-term support. Meanwhile, pork cutout rebounded 60 cents to $113.01, with gains in all cuts negating a $2.32 decline in primal bellies.