Good morning!
Grain prices mostly firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1 1/4 cents, November soybeans down 3/4 cent and December winter wheat futures were 4 to 5 cents higher. Corn bulls are having a decent week and appear to be building a price base under the market. The soybean meal market has been the better performer in the grains complex this week, hitting a two-month high Wednesday, as spreaders continue unwinding long bean oil, short soybean meal spreads. Wednesday’s price action in December winter wheat futures produced technically bullish “key reversals” up on the daily bar charts, albeit just barely for HRW. Those are very early chart clues that price bottoms may be in place. Good follow-through buying interest today or Friday, especially in HRW, would better suggest market bottoms are indeed in place. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $63.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Iowa and Illinois results… For Iowa, Pro Farmer crop scouts found corn production potential in District 1 was 197.89 bushels, up 12.06% versus 2024 and up 9.89% versus the three-year average. District 4 was 207.25 bushels, up 5.82% versus last year and up 14.01% versus the three-year average. District 7 came in at 195.03 bushels, up 1.80% versus 2024 and up 6.35% versus the three-year average. Illinois corn averaged 196.19 bushels per acre, down 2.24% from last year but up 1.72% from the three-year average. Iowa District 1 soybeans saw an average count in a 3’x3’ square area of 1279.25 pods, up 15.38% versus 2024 and up 15.05% versus the three-year average. District 4 soybeans: 1376.15 pods, up 9.73% versus 2024 and up 13.63% versus the three-year average. District 7 soybeans: 1562.54 pods, up 14.37% versus 2024, and up 24.66% versus the three-year average. For Illinois soybeans, the Tour found the average counts scouts recorded were an average of 1479.22 pods in a 3' x 3' square area. That is up 4.24% versus 2024 and up 12.65% versus the three-year Tour average. Iowa could be the nation’s top state this year for corn and soybean production, but both crops are in a race to beat disease pressure that’s gaining momentum. Illinois corn continues to struggle, while the soybean crop there is positioned to deliver high yields. Crop scout and Iowa farmer Brent Judisch reported that in northwest Iowa’s Harrison County, “Our first six or seven samples were terrible with southern rust. We saw three fields in a row that were actually gross. I walked out of them just covered with it. After that, while we’ve seen it all day, it’s been more in the lower leaves and not nearly as drastic.” Scouts reported the Illinois corn crop appears lush from the road, but once they walk out into fields, pick ears and pull back husks, most describe finding an average crop. Iowa’s soybean crop “is better than last year by far,” said Greg Lehenbauer, Pro Farmer crop scout. Soybeans in Illinois also offered a better yield picture for farmers than the corn crop there, said Pro Farmer’s Lane Akre. “We didn’t have a single sample in the state that was south of 1300 pods in a 3' x 3' square. We saw a lot of pods and a lot of potential out there.” Our final yields from Crop Tour will be released Friday at 1:30 p.m. CDT.
U.S. crop weather still seen as mostly favorable down the stretch… World Weather Inc. reports “conditions in most of the key U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains will continue to be favorable through at least the next 10 days.” The northern Plains and Corn Belt are unlikely to receive much rain in this timeframe. However, “this shouldn’t be problematic due to below average temperatures that will limit evaporation rates.” Also, west Texas is still expected to start receiving some beneficial needed rainfall next week which will be good for improving cotton crop production potential, said the forecaster.
Fed’s FOMC minutes out, now comes Jackson Hole… The latest FOMC minutes, out Wednesday afternoon, showed most Federal Reserve officials believe the risk to problematic inflation outweighs concerns over the U.S. labor market at their meeting last month, as trade tariffs fueled a growing divide within the Fed’s rate-setting committee. A majority of the 18 policymakers in attendance “judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks,” according to the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Several FOMC members emphasized that U.S. inflation has exceeded 2% for an extended period and that has increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation. Stock and financial markets have been quieter this week, ahead of the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium that gets into full swing today and is hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday morning and is expected to update the Fed’s monetary policy framework. Powell’s speech will be the economic highlight of the week for the marketplace and could provide a new perspective on how much FOMC support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September.
Russia wants land, Ukraine wants security… Vice President J.D. Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control, according to a Bloomberg report. Vance said Ukraine wants to know it’s not going to get invaded again by Russia and wants territorial integrity, while the Russians want certain pieces of territory. Vance described Russian President Putin as “more soft-spoken than you would necessarily expect” and “very deliberate” and “very careful” based on their phone conversations, said the Bloomberg report.
Global crude oil glut coming?... Asian oil refiners have been buying crude from farther afield, including the U.S., Brazil, and Nigeria, due to in part President Trump’s trade and foreign policy approach, reports Bloomberg. Despite the purchases of light, low-sulfur crudes, the market is bracing for a glut, with traders expecting a surplus of crude in the coming months, according to Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant, as reported by Bloomberg. “The expected glut is mainly due to OPEC+'s restoration of sidelined barrels and producers outside the alliance, such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, pumping more,” suggesting average global crude oil production is running ahead of demand growth.
Eurozone, India manufacturing sectors show solid growth despite tariffs… The eurozone’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn despite a deal locking in higher levies for exports to the U.S. The composite purchasing managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global rose to 51.1 in August from 50.9 in July, farther above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Analysts had predicted a reading of 50.6. While Eurozone services weakened a little, in line with estimates, manufacturing saw a jump to 50.5, beating expectations for a slight slowdown and recording its first expansion since June 2022. Meantime, The HSBC India manufacturing PMI rose to 59.8 in August 2025 from a final reading of 59.1 in July, surpassing market forecasts of 59.1, preliminary estimates showed. This marked the highest level since January 2008, driven by a sharp rise in new orders amid strong domestic demand.
FanDuel, CME Group teaming up to offer bets on stocks, commodities, U.S. economic data… FanDuel and CME Group say the bets will be framed as regulated financial products rather than wagers, with customers able to express their views with simple “yes” or “no” positions for as little as $1.00. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said that FanDuel and CME’s focus on financial assets and economic indicators “seems like a way to position early, should rules evolve to allow broader prediction market offerings.”
Malaysian palm oil futures firmer… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered around MYR 4,500 per MT Thursday, after hitting a low of MYR 4,450 the day before. The market was supported by strength in rival edible oils on the Dalian and CBOT exchanges. Signs of solid exports also lifted sentiment, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments of Malaysian palm oil products during August 1–20 rose 13.6% to 17% from July. Meantime, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to hold above MYR 4,300 in the near term on tighter supply and stronger biodiesel demand, citing USDA projections that over half of U.S. soybean output will be used for biodiesel by 2026.
Cattle market bulls riding a steaming locomotive… October live cattle futures Wednesday gained $3.50 to $234.85 and set a contract high. September feeder cattle futures gained $5.675 to $358.10 and set another contract/record high. The cattle futures bulls are forging full speed ahead amid solid cash and beef market fundamentals. Also, there are no early, strong technical clues that market tops are close at hand. USDA today reported light cash cattle trade has occurred so far this week. Steers are fetching an average price of $245.00 and heifers $244.59. USDA Monday reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $242.01, the same as the week prior. The latest CME feeder cattle index price is $342.17 as of Aug.15.
Chart consolidation in lean hog futures this week… October lean hog futures fell 20 cents to $89.95 Wednesday. The lean hog futures market is consolidating this week. While buying interest has been limited by a mild deterioration in cash hog and pork market fundamentals, selling pressure has been limited amid record gains in the cattle futures markets this week. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 52 cents to $109.06 as of Aug. 16. Today’s projected cash index price is down 49 cents at $108.57. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $110.23.
Today’s reports—Thursday
--7:30 am Weekly Export Sales
--2:00 pm Livestock Slaughter
--2:00 pm Milk Production
--2:00 pm Mushrooms
--2:00 pm Slaughter Weekly