Good morning!
Corn and wheat firmer, beans weaker overnight... Corn and winter wheat futures are trading mildly firmer following two-sided trade overnight, while spring wheat built on yesterday’s gains and soybeans extended losses. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny higher, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower, winter wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher and spring wheat is 7 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is around 800 points lower and trading at its lowest level since April 2022. Front-month crude oil futures are about $1.25 lower.
June Crop Production, WASDE Reports out later this morning... USDA’s June Crop Production and Supply & Demand (WASDE) Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT will feature the second winter wheat crop estimate, along with updated old-crop and new-crop balance sheets. Modest changes are expected to winter wheat production and ending stocks. Click here to view pre-report expectations.
China lowers 2024-25 cotton import forecast... China’s ag ministry lowered its forecast for cotton imports in 2024-25 by 300,000 MT to 1.2 MMT due to U.S. tariffs, down sharply from 3.25 MMT in 2023-24. The ministry expects China’s cotton imports to rise to 1.4 MMT in 2025-26, unchanged from its prior outlook. The ministry kept its import forecasts for corn and soybeans unchanged for both 2024-25 and 2025-26. China is projected to import 7 MMT of corn in both marketing years, down sharply from 23.41 MMT in 2023-24. After importing a record 104.75 MMT of soybeans in 2023-24, imports are expected to fall to 98.6 MMT in the current marketing year and 95.8 MMT in 2025-26.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended June 5, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 700,000-1,200,000 | (49,114) | 0-200,000 | 444,857 |
| Wheat | (100,000)-500,000 | 942,276 | 400,000-600,000 | 160,116 |
| Soybeans | 100,000-500,000 | 194,345 | 0-200,000 | 3,544 |
| Soymeal | 150,000-400,000 | 254,745 | 0-50,000 | 10,195 |
| Soyoil | 0-22,000 | 10,292 | 0-10,000 | 1,488 |
Canada, U.S. exchange draft trade document amid tariff tensions... U.S. and Canadian officials have exchanged a short working document outlining potential terms for a new trade deal, according to CBC News, signaling preliminary progress toward easing strained relations between the two countries. The document, described as fewer than five pages, indicates Canada’s willingness to join President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense initiative and emphasizes commitments on border security, NATO defense spending and increased Arctic infrastructure development. Despite this diplomatic step, sources cited indicate no finalized agreement is expected before the upcoming G7 summit in Alberta, set to begin Sunday.
Lutnick: Europe likely last in U.S. trade negotiations... Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled that Europe is likely to be the final focus in the Trump administration’s ongoing global trade negotiations. In an interview with CNBC, Lutnick remarked that Europe would “probably be at the very, very end,” describing the bloc as “tough to deal with” due to its rigid approach in negotiations. The comments come as the U.S. accelerates trade talks with other key partners. Lutnick dismissed concerns that a recent court ruling pausing some Trump-era tariffs would derail talks, noting that discussions with Brussels continue, though at a “slower pace.” Lutnick’s remarks underscore a strategic order in U.S. trade diplomacy: finalize deals with more flexible or urgent partners — such as China — before engaging in potentially more drawn-out discussions with Europe.
Trump to notify trading partners soon of unilateral tariffs... President Donald Trump announced he plans to send letters to U.S. trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting out unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies. Trump’s timeline for action has shifted before and it remains unclear if the new deadline will hold. The administration has so far finalized a trade framework only with the UK and reached a temporary tariff truce with China. The U.S. is still pursuing deals with India, Japan, South Korea and the EU, while negotiations with China remain tense over mutual accusations of backtracking on commitments. Trump indicated he is open to extending the July 9 deadline but doesn’t expect it to be necessary. Meanwhile, Bessent told lawmakers Wednesday that it’s “highly likely” some countries will receive an extension of the current pause on U.S. country-specific tariffs, which are otherwise set to resume July 9.
U.S. tariff revenue surges, helping narrow May budget deficit... U.S. customs duties surged to a record $23 billion in May, sharply reducing the monthly budget deficit, according to the Treasury Department. This marked a 270% increase last year, driven by President Donald Trump’s significant tariff hikes. Consequently, May’s fiscal deficit narrowed by 17% year-over-year to $316 billion. However, Bessent warned that the overall budget deficit remains large, forecasting it at between 6.5% and 6.7% of GDP for the current fiscal year, driven largely by higher Social Security and healthcare spending.
Strategie Grains raises EU wheat production, export forecasts... Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat production forecast by 900,000 MT to 130.7 MMT, as Spain and southeast Europe remain on course for a bumper harvest, while rain has brought relief to parched parts of northern Europe. Wheat production is now expected to rise 15.5% from last year. Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat export forecast for 2025-26 by 600,000 MT to 31.8 MMT, up 7.1 MMT (28.7%) from the current year.
India’s palm oil imports surge in May... India’s palm oil imports soared 84% in May to a six-month high of 592,888 MT, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The sharp increase was driven by dwindling domestic inventories and palm oil’s growing price discount compared to soyoil and sunflower oil, encouraging refiners to boost purchases. Total vegetable oil imports jumped 33% from April to 1.19 MMT, the highest since December, as soyoil imports rose 10.4% to 398,585 MT — the highest since January — and sunflower oil imports edged up nearly 2% to 183,555 MT. Below-average imports in early 2025 left domestic stocks at their lowest since July 2020. Palm oil imports are expected to climb further in June, potentially reaching 850,000 MT, with soyoil imports holding steady around 400,000 MT.
House delays markup of $25.5 billion Ag/FDA bill amid funding, policy disputes... House appropriators hit pause on a $25.5 billion fiscal year (FY) 2026 spending bill for food, drug, and agriculture programs, leaving final action until after lawmakers return from recess on June 23. The proposed measure would slash funding by 4.2% from current enacted levels — $21.9 billion for USDA and $6.8 billion for FDA — but stalled in committee early Thursday as members prioritized defense spending legislation. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) acknowledged the delay, noting, “Obviously, we’re well behind schedule,” and suggested the ag bill markup could resume later Thursday if time allows, or else after the break. Markup of the ag-FDA bill is expected to resume after the House returns from its week-long recess, as appropriators continue to debate both funding levels and major policy riders. Final spending numbers remain uncertain as Congress awaits a full budget proposal from President Donald Trump.
Slow developing cash cattle trade... Cash cattle trade has been limited so far this week, with prices coming in steady/firmer. Prices are expected to be widely varied, with a wide range between the Southern Plains and the northern market.
Cash hog index tops $100... The CME lean hog index is up another 94 cents to $100.91 as of June 10. That’s the first time the index has been above $100.00 since Aug. 16, 2023.
Overnight demand news... Taiwan purchased 95,450 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Tunisia tendered to buy 75,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 11:00 a.m. Crop Production — NASS
- 11:00 a.m. World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Reports (WASDE) — WAOB
- 11:15 a.m. Cotton: World Markets and Trade — FAS
- 11:15 a.m. Grains: World Markets and Trade — FAS
- 11:15 a.m. Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade — FAS
- 11:15 a.m. World Agricultural Production — FAS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS