Good morning!
Followthrough selling in grains overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Monday’s declines during the overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny lower, soybeans are 2 to 4 cents lower, winter wheat markets are 7 to 8 cents lower and spring wheat is 3 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is more than 450 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are around $2.25 lower.
Fragile ceasefire between Israel, Iran... President Donald Trump announced late Monday that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire after more than a week of escalating conflict — including Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, within hours of the official start, Israel reported that Iran had launched a missile barrage targeting southern Israeli cities. Iran denied any post-ceasefire missile launches, insisting its military operations had ended before the ceasefire began. Trump said on Tuesday that both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire and he was not happy with either country, especially Israel. Trump warned Israel, “Do not drop those bombs. If you do it it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home, now!” Trump wrote on social media. Early violations and mutual distrust raise skepticism about the truce’s durability and the prospect for lasting calm in the region.
Corn, soybean and spring wheat CCI ratings decline... USDA rated the corn crop as 70% “good” to “excellent” and 6% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 66% “good” to “excellent,” and 7% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 54% “good” to “excellent” and 15% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined 1.0 points to 377.9, the soybean crop dropped 1.2 points to 362.7 and the spring wheat crop fell 6.0 points to 354.3. The corn crop is now rated 3.6 points above last year. The soybean crop is 0.3 point below year-ago and spring wheat is 19.4 points below last year. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of June 22:
- Corn: 70% good/excellent (72% last week); 97% emerged (98% average); 4% silking (3% average).
- Soybeans: 66% good/excellent (66% last week); 96% planted (97% average); 90% emerged (90% average); 8% blooming (7% average).
- Spring wheat: 54% good/excellent (57% last week); 93% emerged (97% average); 17% headed (18% average).
- Winter wheat: 49% good/excellent (52% last week); 96% headed (96% average); 19% harvested (28% average).
- Cotton: 47% good/excellent (48% last week); 92% planted (95% average); 26% squaring (26% average); 5% setting bolls (6% average).
Hassett: U.S./China trade framework stable amid Iran tensions... Rising tensions in the Middle East, including recent U.S. strikes on Iran, have not affected the U.S./China trade agreement, according to Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council. In an interview with CNBC, Hassett emphasized that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are maintaining active communication with Chinese officials, focusing on keeping the rare earths supply chain steady. He also clarified that the recent U.S. military operations in Iran were “extremely targeted” and did not disrupt global oil markets — an outcome that could have otherwise threatened economic stability and ongoing trade talks.
House committee, Japan ambassador to meet amid stalled trade talks... Members of the House Ways and Means Committee will hold a closed-door roundtable with Japanese Ambassador Shigeo Yamada on Thursday, as trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan remain deadlocked ahead of a critical July 9 tariff deadline. The discussions, led by the panel’s Trade Subcommittee, come at a tense moment: Japan is urgently seeking relief from a 25% U.S. tariff on car exports and a suspended 24% reciprocal tariff on other imports — both set to expire July 9 unless a deal is reached. Negotiations face added complications from Japan’s July 20 upper house elections, which limit Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ability to make concessions on politically sensitive issues like agricultural imports. Japanese officials warn that failing to resolve the auto tariff dispute could “cause the entire Japanese economy to stall,” given the central role of the car industry in national supply chains. With time running out and no clear resolution in sight, Thursday’s meeting offers a rare opportunity for lawmakers and the Japanese ambassador to seek new paths forward.
Trump administration launches H-2A reforms to secure legal farm workforce... The Trump administration is moving swiftly to overhaul the H-2A visa system to establish a fully legal workforce for U.S. agriculture, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced at the Western Governors Association annual meeting. Rollins confirmed that top officials from the White House, USDA and Department of Labor are collaborating on plans to simplify and expand the H-2A process, aiming to make it more accessible for small and mid-sized farms. She pledged additional announcements within days as the administration readies new steps to support farm employers and stabilize the sector. The centerpiece of the coming reforms is a coordinated drive to reduce paperwork and regulatory barriers that have long hampered employers’ ability to use the H-2A program. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer will lead efforts to streamline the application and compliance process, working closely with USDA and Homeland Security. Chavez-DeRemer is slated to outline the Department of Labor’s new approach today to the Western Governors Association, with a focus on making the H-2A system more efficient and employer-friendly. By prioritizing a streamlined H-2A program, the administration said it is signaling a commitment to both enforce immigration law and maintain a stable, legal workforce for American agriculture — without undermining the viability of farms or the national food supply. Further details on the planned reforms and paperwork reductions are expected in the coming days.
China issues guidelines on financial support for boosting consumption... China released guidelines aimed at using financial tools to boost consumption, with pledges to support employment and raise household incomes as part of broader efforts to bolster the economy. China will “guide financial institutions to strengthen financial services from both the supply and demand sides of consumption, meet the diversified financing needs of various entities and promote the expansion of high-quality consumption,” the central bank said. Banks will be encouraged to establish and improve internal structures to provide efficient and convenient services in the field of consumption, innovate credit products while managing risks, according to the guidelines. China aims to boost residents’ employment and income growth and raise consumer confidence. The central bank will use various policy tools such as reserve requirements, relending and rediscounting, and open market operations to maintain liquidity and reduce overall social financing costs. China will support qualified firms in the consumption sector raise funds via initial public offerings (IPOs) and support eligible firms in service consumption areas to issue bonds, according to the guidelines. Beijing will also encourage the issuance of consumer-focused exchange-traded funds, and support eligible projects in issuing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector.
Brazil considers raising ethanol, biodiesel mandates... Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), comprised of government ministers who advise fuel policy decisions, will discuss raising the mandated proportion of ethanol in gasoline to 30% from a current 27% at a meeting on Wednesday, two sources told Reuters. The council will also discuss raising the proportion of biodiesel in diesel to 15% from its current 14%, the sources said. In February, CNPE decided to hold the biodiesel blend at 14% amid fears the proposed increase could push up food prices and damage the government’s approval ratings. In March, Brazil’s ministry of mines and energy said increasing the proportion of gasoline to 30% from 27% was backed by tests showing “consistent performance” and “real environmental benefits.”
Countries alter Brazilian poultry restrictions... Iraq removed a trade ban it had imposed on Brazilian chicken meat after a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) case on a commercial farm last month, while South Korea eased its restrictions, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said. South Korea will now restrict only chicken meat from the region affected by HPAI, the ministry said, without providing more details.
Historic cash cattle run ends... After nine straight weeks of gains in the cash cattle market, including eight consecutive record highs, prices declined last week. The average cash cattle price of $234.88 fell $4.03 from the previous week and cash sources are expecting additional near-term weakness as packers continue to run historically light slaughters amid negative margins. While margins have greatly improved, they remain solidly in the red.
Seasonal strength continues for cash hog index, pork cutout... The CME lean hog index is up another 77 cents to $109.55 as of June 20. Pork cutout firmed 64 cents to $122.78 on Monday, fueled by a $5.08 jump in primal bellies and a $1.08 rise in hams,more than offsetting weakness in other cuts.
Overnight demand news... Bangladesh tendered to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat.
Today’s reports
· No reports scheduled.