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Corn and wheat lower, beans narrowly mixed overnight... Corn and wheat futures faced followthrough selling overnight, while the soybean market tried to work higher. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are fractionally lower to a penny higher and wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures are both modestly firmer.
U.S., China trade talks into Day 2... U.S. officials struck an optimistic tone as the second day of high-level trade talks with China unfolded in London. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Monday’s session as a “good meeting,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick characterized the discussions as “fruitful,” noting on Tuesday that “they’re going well, and we’re spending lots of time together.” Talks reportedly lasted seven hours Monday and resumed Tuesday morning. The Chinese delegation did not comment publicly. Negotiations are centering on a potential deal that would see the U.S. ease certain tech export restrictions in exchange for Beijing lifting limits on rare earth shipments — critical components for U.S. industries ranging from smartphones to military hardware. White House National Economic Council chief Kevin Hassett told CNBC that if the talks conclude positively, the U.S. could ease export controls on some semiconductors — but emphasized that the move would not apply to Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips.
Corn, soybean and spring wheat CCI ratings improve... USDA rated the corn crop as 71% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 3.3 points to 378.2. USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent,” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 1.5 points to 365.4. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 53% “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 10.7 points to 356.0, fueled by a 9.9-point increase in top producer North Dakota. Ratings for all three crops remain below year-ago. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of June 8:
- Corn: 71% good/excellent (69% last week); 97% planted (97% average); 87% emerged (87% average).
- Soybeans: 68% good/excellent (67% last week); 90% planted (88% average); 75% emerged (72% average).
- Spring wheat: 53% good/excellent (50% last week); 82% emerged (81% average).
- Winter wheat: 54% good/excellent (52% last week); 88% headed (86% average); 4% harvested (7% average).
- Cotton: 49% good/excellent (49% last week); 76% planted (80% average); 12% squaring (12% average).
Cordonnier raises Brazilian corn production forecast... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn production forecast 1 MMT to 130 MMT, as benefits of late-season rains more than offset any damage from recent frosts for the safrinha crop. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop estimate at 169 MMT. For Argentina, Cordonnier maintained his production forecasts of 48.5 MMT for soybeans and 50 MMT for corn.
Russia expects bigger grain crop this year... Russia is likely to harvest “at least 135 MMT” of grain this year, up 5 MMT from 2024, Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev as saying. The estimate includes the expected harvest from Russia-controlled regions of Ukraine, which provided about 4% of the country’s overall grain harvest in 2024. Patrushev did not provide an estimate of wheat production. On Monday, Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production forecast to 82.8 MMT, citing favorable weather in southern growing regions.
Unfavorable fall weather likely to trim Ukraine’s wheat yields... Unfavorable weather in Ukraine last fall led to a drop in wheat tillers, which could lead to a decrease in wheat yield, analyst ASAP Agri said. “Travelling across Kyiv, Cherkasy and Vinnytsia regions, we observed that water stress from last autumn through early spring has limited tillering,” ASAP Agri consultancy said. The consultancy did not say whether it intended to lower its 2025 crop forecast, which it previously estimated slightly higher than last year’s 22.7 MMT. APK-Inform agriculture consultancy lowered its forecast for wheat production to 21.7 MMT.
Japan to release more emergency rice stocks... Japan will release another 200,000 MT of rice from its emergency stockpile to tackle a doubling of prices since last year, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said. Of the new release, 100,000 MT of 2021 crop year rice will be sold first to retailers of all sizes and local rice sellers with sufficient milling capacity, he said. The other 100,000 MT will be from the 2020 crop year. Japan has so far released about 600,000 MT of rice from its roughly 900,000-MT emergency stockpile since March. About half of that was sold directly to retailers in the past two weeks under Koizumi’s new distribution policy. Data on Monday showed average supermarket rice prices dropped for the second straight week to 4,223 yen per 5 kg in the week ended June 1, down 37 yen.
Update on OMB sessions for EPA RFS proposed rule... The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has adjusted its schedule regarding EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Set 2 proposed rule. There are now 23 meetings listed as either scheduled or completed for this rulemaking process. Notably, a previously planned session for June 12 with the Small Refineries Coalition and Wynnewood Refining Company has been removed from the OMB’s public calendar. These organizations are not currently listed as participants in any other sessions concerning the RFS Set 2 proposed rule. However, the Small Refineries Coalition and Wynnewood Refining Company remain scheduled for a separate meeting with OMB on June 11. This session pertains to EPA’s final rule on the RFS Partial Waiver of the 2024 Cellulosic Biofuel Volume Requirement, rather than the broader Set 2 proposal. The removal of the June 12 session reduces the total number of meetings on the Set 2 proposal and may indicate either a consolidation of stakeholder input or a shift in advocacy focus to the partial waiver issue.
China extends EU pork investigation by six months... China extended an investigation into imported pork from the European Union by six months. The investigation period was extended to Dec. 16 due to the “complexity” of the case, China’s commerce ministry said. While officially framed as a routine procedural extension, the move is widely seen as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Trade watchers see the pork case as a bargaining chip. Talks on Chinese EV exports to the EU are reportedly progressing, but no final deal has been announced.
Historic run in cash cattle continues... Cash cattle prices averaged a record $236.62 last week, up $6.68 from the previous week. This marked the eighth consecutive weekly gain during which prices have surged nearly $29.00 – and the seventh straight record price. Wholesale beef prices firmed $2.17 to $367.25 for Choice and $2.20 to $358.93 for Select on Monday. While those were new highs for the move and the second highest ever behind 2020, wholesale beef values haven’t kept pace with surging cash prices, keeping packer margins buried in the red.
Cash hog index continues to rise, pork cutout pulls back... The CME lean hog index is up another 68 cents to $99.05 as of June 6, extending the seasonal rally to the highest level since August 2023. Pork cutout fell $1.22 to $110.29 on Monday, fueled by a $5.92 drop in primal hams, though that remained the highest since August 2023.
Overnight demand news... South Korea purchased 337,000 MT of corn – 65,000 MT optional origin and 272,000 MT likely to be sourced from South America or South Africa. Iran tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT each of corn (can be sourced from Brazil, the EU or Black Sea region), feed barley (can be sourced from the EU or Black Sea region) and soymeal (can be sourced from Brazil or Argentina).
Today’s reports
· No reports scheduled.