After the Bell | September 15, 2021
Corn: December futures rose 13 1/4 cents to $5.33 1/2 a bushel, the highest settlement since Aug. 31. Corn futures sharply extended a rally off last Friday’s low amid industry reports of disappointing corn yields. Given recent hot, dry weather, traders are growing concerned the crop is finishing too quickly, prompting speculation USDA will have to cut its corn yield estimate. Sustained buyer interest through harvest will require strength in the export market, placing more focus on USDA’s weekly sales numbers. For the week ended Sept. 9, U.S. corn export sales are expected between 500,000 metric tons (MT) and 1 million metric tons (MMT). The weekly sales figure should be a good gauge of foreign buyer interest just above $5.00 in December futures.
Soybeans: November soybean futures rose 12 cents to $12.94 1/2 a bu., the highest closing price since $13.03 1/4 on Aug. 30. December soymeal fell $2.20 to $339.60 per ton, while December soyoil rose 150 points to 58.37 cents a pound. Soybean futures settled at the highest level in over two weeks after the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported stronger than expected crushing activity in August. NOPA members crushed 158.84 million bu. of soybeans last month, up 2.4% from 155.11 million bu. in July and the highest in three months. Analysts expected August crushing to fall to 154.18 million bushels. Last month’s crushing was still 3.8% under the 165.06 million bu. in crushed in August 2020. Also today, USDA reported soybean sales cancellations of 132,000 MT to China and 196,000 MT to “unknown” destinations, both for 2021-22 delivery. USDA’s weekly export sales report tomorrow is expected to show U.S. soybean sales for the week ending Sept. 9 at 600,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Wheat: December SRW futures climbed 11 1/2 cents to $7.12 1/4 per bushel, the highest closing price since $7.19 3/4 on Sept. 7. December HRW futures advanced 14 1/4 to $7.16. December spring wheat surged 17 1/2 to $9.04 3/4. Wheat futures gained spillover support from strength in the corn and soybean market. With winter wheat planting under way, the market is “bidding for acres” to stay competitive with other crops. Gains also stemmed from ongoing concern over tightening global supplies following harvest shortfalls in other top wheat countries. France’s farm office expects soft wheat exports of 9.6 MMT outside the European Union in 2021-22, a 900,000-MT cut from its July outlook. Tomorrow’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
Cotton: December cotton futures fell 29 points to 93.37 cents per pound. After an impressive rally yesterday, cotton bulls seemed unwilling to push the market higher ahead of tomorrow’s USDA export sales report. Still, the cotton market continues to post a strong performance despite USDA’s recent increase to its 2021 U.S. crop forecast. Bullishness in part stems from consistently robust demand despite elevated prices. Last week’s vigorous sales results on the USDA Export Sales report testified to that strength. However, bulls need to be constantly fed, so traders will be watching tomorrow’s export data for confirmation of those ideas. We suspect long position holders did some evening-up today just in case the numbers prove disappointing.
Cattle: October live cattle rose 5 cents to $124.175 per hundredweight, while December futures fell 20 cents to $129.45. October feeder cattle fell $1.65 to $156.50. Live cattle futures showed little followthrough buying strength following yesterday’s gains, partly due to ongoing weakness in wholesale beef prices. Choice cutout values fell another $2.38 early today to $320.51, the 13th consecutive daily decline. Cash cattle markets this week have seen light tests at mostly $124 and in a range from $123 to $125. In the north, cattle are trading at $200 dressed. Overall, so far this week it’s a mostly steady trade from last week’s cash levels. Cattle slaughter so far this week was an estimated 355,000 head, down from 360,000 for the same period a year ago. Sharp gains in corn prices today pressured feeder cattle.
Hogs: October lean hog futures rose $1.90 to $82.275 per hundredweight, while December futures rose 7.5 cents to $72.25. Deferred contracts starting with February ended slightly lower. Nearby futures posted a technical bounce from yesterday’s drop to six-month lows, with firmer wholesale pork prices adding support, stirring beliefs the market is poised for seasonal strength. Pork cutout values rose 50 cents today to $105.70, which followed a gain of more than $4 yesterday, USDA reports showed. Movement totaled 402 loads. National direct carcass values averaged $83.50, down 57 cents from yesterday. The latest CME lean hog index fell 63 cents to $96.77, the lowest since $95.97 on March 25. Slaughter so far this week was an estimated 1.433 million head, down 1.4% from the same period a year ago.
