New crop corn futures are leading strength at midmorning while old-crop is near unchanged.
- Nearby corn futures are trading near unchanged while deferred contracts are posting solid gains.
- The Trump administration is intensifying efforts to boost U.S. agricultural exports to Asia, pressing countries like Japan, South Korea, India and Thailand to lower tariffs and expand imports of American rice, soybeans, corn, pork and beef.
- Greater rain is expected to return to the Delta and Tennessee River basin in the next ten days that could cause crop concerns and planting delays, says World Weather Inc.
- Corn-for-ethanol use totaled 454.2 million bu. in March, 5.7 million bu. less than expected. Corn consumed for ethanol increased 33 million bu. (7.8%) from last year but declined 17.9 million bu. (3.8%) from last year.
- July corn futures continue to struggle breaking above $4.75 resistance. That is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $4.79. Selling pressure finds support at $4.70, which has capped most of the downside this week.
Soybeans are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher, and soymeal futures are around $4.50 higher. Soyoil is about 50 points lower.
- Soymeal futures are supporting soybeans today as corrective strength is driving gains.
- The 45Z tax credit is garnering attention in Washington. Soyoil use for biofuels has plunged to levels not seen since 2021 as uncertainty regarding the program’s future has discouraged soyoil use.
- U.S. processors crushed 206.6 million bu. of soybeans during March, which was just above expectations of 205.9 million bushels. Crush increased 17 million bu. (9.0%) from February and was 3.1 million bu. (1.5%) above last year.
- Beijing is “evaluating” an offer from Washington to hold talks over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China’s commerce ministry said. The ministry said the U.S. has approached China to seek talks over tariffs and Beijing’s door was open for discussions.
- July soybeans are finding resistance at the April 24 close at $10.62, which is reinforced by 200-day moving average resistance at $10.66 1/4. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $10.51 3/4 on a reversal lower.
Wheat futures are 11 to 13 cents higher at midmorning.
- SRW wheat futures are surging higher today and are looking to close the week out flat.
- USDA estimated D1-D4 drought conditions covered 23% of the U.S. winter wheat crop (down 10 points) as of April 29. Rain is expected to continue to develop over the next couple of weeks in winter wheat country.
- The U.S. handed Japan a draft framework in this week’s negotiations in Washington, but it yielded little net positive result. Japan is a top buyer of U.S. wheat and the White House is looking to advance ag purchases.
- July SRW futures tried and failed to overcome stiff resistance at the 20-day moving average, current at $5.46 1/4, which is quickly backed by $5.50. Support comes in at $5.40 on profit-taking.
Live cattle are modestly higher this morning while feeders are posting stronger gains.
- Deferred live cattle futures are posting modest gains while nearby contracts continue to face stiffer resistance.
- Packer margins remaining deep in the red amid light slaughter counts have traders pessimistic that record cash trade can’t continue into the summer months. Cash trade so far this week has averaged $220.71, surpassing last week’s record.
- Negotiations picked up this week. Whereas last week’s cash cattle trade totaled 17,548 head, this week’s total is already at 23,363 head, indicating packers are short bought on near-term needs.
- Wholesale beef ended Thursday mixed as Choice slipped $2.14 to $343.17 while Select rose $2.26 to $324.28.
- June live cattle futures are struggling to break out of this Wednesday’s range as fundamental support is butting up against stiff technical resistance. Staunch resistance lies at Wednesday’s contract high of $211.00, while support comes in at $208.00 on profit-taking.
Hog futures are modestly higher in most contracts at midsession.
- Lean hogs reversed from weakness earlier this morning and are working higher
- The CME lean hog index is up another 33 cents to $89.57 as of April 30. While that is the 11th consecutive daily gain, it is the smallest rise in a week.
- Pork cutout fell 15 cents to $96.46 on Thursday, led lower by a $9.87 plunge in ribs. Movement was light at 250.71 loads. Cutout continues to chop sideways, providing little support to the cash hog market.
- June lean hogs have broken out of the recent sideways range and are looking to breakout higher this morning. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above support at $98.60, while additional resistance stands at the psychological $100.00 mark.