ADVICE ALERT: Wheat producers: Extend 2025-crop sales, 2026-crop sales... Winter wheat futures have rallied amid concerning weather in the Plains and the Black Sea. While export demand out of the U.S. remains robust, the world balance sheet continues to indicate an abundance of wheat. We advise all wheat producers to sell another 20% of 2025-crop to get to 70% sold in the cash market. We also advise selling another 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year to get to 30% forward sold.
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Corn is mostly 4 cent lower.
- Corn futures are under pressure amid general selling across commodities, led by a notable correction in precious metals and a rebound in the U.S. dollar.
- Nymex WTI crude oil futures on Thursday rose more than 3.5% to around $65.50 a barrel, the highest intraday level since last September and nearing the strongest close since last August, as geopolitical risk premiums increased following renewed U.S. threats against Iran. Prices backed off a bit overnight. President Trump warned Tehran to agree to a nuclear deal or face military strikes, saying U.S. naval forces in the region were prepared to act if necessary.
- World Weather Inc. today issued a special report saying an intense heat wave continues to bake a large section of Australia in recent days. Daytime highs peaked well above 100 degrees for a week in portions of interior Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, and South Australia with extreme highs of 115 to 122 common.
- March corn futures continue to be limited by the 20-day moving average, trading at $4.30 ½, which is backed by the 40-, 100-, and 2000-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average of $4.26 1/2 is serving up initial support and is backed by the Jan. 13 low of $4.17 1/4.
Soybeans are 5 to 6 cents lower, while soymeal is $2.40 lower Soyoil is around 15 points lower.
- Soybeans are weaker as technical headwinds and fresh Brazilian supplies bring a pause after recent gains.
- World Weather Inc. reports central and eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Rio Grande do Sul are already dry enough to induce crop stress, and the longer the dryness prevails, the greater the impact may be on total production.
- Malaysian palm oil futures slipped around 2% to below MYR 4,240 per MT on Friday, ending a four-session rally as traders booked profits after prices hit a three-month high earlier in the week. Weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges added pressure, compounded by caution ahead of China’s January PMI release, given the country’s role as a key buyer.
- March soybeans are facing pressure from the 40- and 100-day moving averages, trading at $10.71 1/4 and $10.82 1/2. Initial support lies at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $10.64 3/4 and $10.59 1/2.
Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower.
- Wheat futures are correctively weaker after two days of short-covering gains and pressure from a firmer dollar.
- Another wave of bitter cold is expected in the central U.S. Plains this weekend and snow cover is unlikely to be very great, though no new bouts of winterkill are expected, notes World Weather. Soft wheat areas in the Midwest will remain snow covered while temps remain bitter cold there.
- Agricultural analysts and the national emergency service reported extremely low temps will hit Ukraine at the beginning of next week, which is very dangerous for winter crops.
- March SRW futures are facing initial resistance at $5.45 3/4, which is backed by the 200-day moving average of $5.54 3/4. Initial support lies at $5.35 1/2, which is backed by the 100-day moving average, trading at $5.30 1/2.
Live cattle are mixed, while feeders are posting notable losses.
- Live cattle futures reached a fresh near-term high amid strong technical and fundamental support.
- Wholesale beef declined on Thursday, with Choice down $2.08 to $367.66 and Select down $2.85 to $360.72. Movement totaled 94 loads.
- Texas Governor Greg Abbott late Thursday issued a statewide disaster declaration to “better equip the Texas New World Screwworm Response Team to prevent the potential spread of the NWS fly into Texas and to better protect livestock and wildlife,” said a press release from the governor.
- Argentina’s beef export revenue hit a record $3.7 billion in 2025, up 22.3% from the previous year, according to the country’s economy ministry earlier today.
- April live cattle have edged above resistance at the January high, with resistance now serving at $240.00, which is backed by longer term resistance at the Oct. 16 high of $250.925. Initial support lies at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $236.65.
Hog futures are narrowly mixed at midsession.
- Lean hog futures are weaker in narrow trade, with wholesale weakness and the futures’ premium to cash stalling buyer interest.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 50 cents to $85.72 as of Jan. 28.
- The pork cutout value slid $1.62 on Thursday to $93.43 amid losses in all cuts aside from primal loins. Movement totaled 293.9 loads.
- April lean hogs are now facing resistance at the 10-day moving average, trading at $95.81, while initial support lies at $94.90, which is backed by the 20-day moving average.