China expands trade ties with Africa as U.S. engagement fades (Agri-Pulse): China is rapidly expanding its economic relationship with African countries, strengthening trade links and market access across the continent while U.S. involvement remains uncertain. Analysts say China’s Belt and Road Initiative—originally launched in 2013 to finance infrastructure projects—has increasingly become a platform for broader trade expansion. Beginning May 1, China plans to grant zero-tariff access to imports from all 53 African nations that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing, a move aimed at deepening commercial ties and boosting African exports to the Chinese market.
China has already been Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009, and the gap with the United States has widened significantly in recent years. Total China-Africa trade grew from about $198.5 billion in 2012 to $295.6 billion in 2024, compared with roughly $104.9 billion in trade between the U.S. and Africa. Researchers note that China’s steady investment and trade outreach have strengthened its influence across the region’s agricultural and commodity markets.
Meanwhile, the future of U.S. trade engagement with Africa is unclear. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows many African products to enter the United States duty-free, is currently authorized only through the end of 2026. At the same time, U.S. development involvement has declined, with more than 80% of USAID-funded programs canceled in early 2025. Analysts say the policy choices Washington makes in the coming years will determine whether the U.S. maintains a meaningful economic presence in a region where population growth and rising incomes are expected to drive increasing demand for grains, protein, and processed foods.
Iran war sends oil markets into turmoil as traders weigh supply risks (Bloomberg): Global energy markets have been rattled by the escalating conflict, with oil prices swinging sharply as traders try to gauge the war’s impact on supply and shipping routes. Early in the conflict, crude prices surged amid fears that the fighting could disrupt exports from the Persian Gulf, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz — a key maritime corridor that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments. Disruptions or threats to tanker traffic in the strait have fueled market volatility and pushed prices above $100 per barrel at times.
Markets have reacted strongly to shifting political signals. At points, oil prices pulled back after President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could end soon, which reassured investors worried about prolonged supply disruptions. But those gains have been short-lived, as renewed military activity and warnings from both Washington and Tehran have kept traders on edge. The result has been rapid swings in oil prices and broader market volatility, with stocks and currencies also reacting to the uncertainty.
Energy policymakers are exploring ways to stabilize markets as the conflict unfolds. Officials have discussed measures such as releasing oil from reserves or adjusting sanctions to increase supply if shortages worsen. Still, analysts warn that the biggest risk to global markets remains a sustained disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly tighten global energy supplies and drive higher fuel and fertilizer prices worldwide if the conflict continues.