Corn is mostly a penny lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are trading well off overnight highs to post modest losses, though technical support is curbing seller interest.
- USDA reported 76% of the corn crop was planted as of May 17, up 19 percentage points on the week and six points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 39%.
- Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier estimates U.S. planted corn areas of 93.8 million and harvested acreage of 86 million acres. He estimates the national average yield at 181 bu. Per acre, and total production at 15.566 billion bu.
- European Union officials will meet today to work to finalize legislation for the bloc’s trade deal with the U.S. Failure to reach an agreement risks missing President Trump’s July 4 deadline and could trigger a fresh round of tariff escalation.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his 2025-26 Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 136 MMT amid improved conditions for the southern safrinha crop. He left his Argentine estimate at 62 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward for both crops.
- July corn futures are facing resistance at $4.82, which is backed by the May 5 high of $4.87 1/2. Initial support lies at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $4.72.
Soybeans are a penny to 3 cents higher, while meal is around 90 cents lower. Soyoil futures are unchanged to fractionally lower.
- Soybeans are mostly firmer in narrow trade, with pressure from modest weakness in both meal and soyoil.
- USDA estimated 67% of the soybean crop was planted as of May 17, up 18 percentage points from the previous week and 14 points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 32%.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier estimates U.S. soybean plantings at 86.2 million acres and harvested acreage at 85.1 million. He estimates total production at 4.425 billion bu. using a national average yield of 52.0 bu. per acre.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2025-26 Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 180 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral bias towards both crops going forward.
- India’s soymeal exports are set to be cut in half during the current year to a four-year low after prices surged 47% over the past month, eroding competitiveness of Indian animal feed against South American supplies, according to Reuters. The drop is likely to help suppliers in South and North America increase soymeal shipments to Asian buyers that traditionally source from India.
- July soybeans are facing resistance at $12.24, which is backed by the May 13 high of $12.35. Initial support lies at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $12.06 1/2 to $11.90 3/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents higher while HRS futures are around a penny lower.
- SRW wheat futures are firmer but off overnight highs amid pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar.
- USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 27% good to excellent as of May 17, down one percentage point from last week. The portion of the crop rated poor to very poor rose three points to 43%. On our Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) the HRW crop declined 11.39 points from last week to 241.61. The SRW wheat crop rating improved 1.2 points to 365.86.
- July SRW futures are facing initial resistance at $6.71 ½, which is backed by last week’s high of $6.88 1/4. Initial support lies at $6.51 ½, which is backed by the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages.
Live cattle are weaker while feeders are firmer at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle futures are firmer with support from the notable cash premium to futures.
- Cash cattle trade averaged a new record of $262.85 last week, up $4.33 from the previous week.
- Boxed beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up $2.89 to $392.14 while Select rose 98 cents to $390.23. Movement totaled 84 loads.
- June cattle futures are facing initial support at $250.87, which is backed by the 10- and 20-day moving averages. Initial resistance stands at $255.07, which is backed by the May 1 record high.
Hog futures are mixed at midmorning.
- June lean hogs are firmer in narrow trade, though strong technical resistance continues to pressure prices.
- The CME lean hog index is up 4 cents to $90.50 as of May 15.
- The pork cutout value rose 80 cents to $98.36 on Monday. Movement totaled 257.4 loads.
- China’s agriculture ministry has urged local authorities to adopt strict measures to cut hog capacity and help prices of livestock recover. China unveiled a broad plan last week to cut the normal breeding sow holding level by 3.8% to 37.5 million head, an effort to rein in production capacity as oversupply and weak demand have driven pork prices to multi-year lows.
- June lean hogs continue to face resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, layered at $99.28 and $100.67. Support lies at the May 12 low of $98.35.