Corn is mostly a penny to 2 cents higher at midmorning.
● Corn futures are extending Monday’s gains to once again test resistance at the 200-day moving average.
● Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Argentine corn production estimate for 2025-26 by 2 MMT to 54.0 MMT, mainly on increased acreage and holds a neutral to higher bias going forward. Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian corn production estimate of 137.0 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.
● Initial safrinha corn planting has begun in isolated areas of Mato Grosso and Parana, notes Cordonnier. The planting pace will accelerate as the soybean harvest increases. Conab will issue their first official estimate of the 2025-26 safrinha crop in the February Crop Report.
● March corn futures are testing resistance at the 200-day moving average of $4.45 1/4, with additional resistance at $4.47 3/4. Initial support lies at the 20-day moving average, trading at $4.43 1/2, which is backed by the 100-day moving average.
Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher, while soymeal is $1.30 higher. Soyoil is around 10 points lower.
● Soybeans are firmer, with strength from additional purchases from China, though technical challenges remain.
● USDA reported daily sales of 336,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2025-26.
● Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine 2025-26 soybean production estimates at 178.0 MMT and 49.0 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to higher bias for both crops going forward.
● In Brazil, early harvest activity has started in Mato Grosso and Parana and has been confined to early maturing varieties or soybeans that were irrigated.
● March soybeans are being limited by resistance at the 200-day moving average of $10.66 1/2, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $10.62 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are a penny to 6 cents higher, while HRS futures fractionally weaker.
● SRW wheat futures are modestly firmer but continue to be technically limited.
● There is still no risk of winterkill in U.S. HRW wheat or soft wheat areas of the Midwest, notes World Weather Inc. Warm weather in the central U.S. this week will maintain low winter hardiness for wheat and it will be important for snow to fall prior to any bitter cold event that might take place later in January.
● Harvesting in Australia, South Africa and Argentina advanced well in recent weeks and should be winding down, according to World Weather. Late season crop conditions and fieldwork should remain favorable.
● March SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.13 1/2, which is backed by the 20-day moving average. Initial support lies tat $5.07 1/4.
Live cattle are modestly firmer while feeders are posting solid gains at midmorning.
● Cattle futures are firmer but facing challenges at Monday’s high as traders pause.
● Cash cattle trade averaged $231.68 last week, up $2.35 from the previous week.
● Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up $3.73 to $353.70 while Select rose $4.58 to $351.50. Movement totaled 118 loads for the day.
● February futures are facing resistance at Monday’s high of $237.45, while initial support lies at $234.72.
Hog futures are weaker at midsession.
● Lean hog futures are modestly weaker as futures’ premium to the cash index are limiting the upside despite a solid technical posture.
● The CME lean hog index is down another 23 cents to $81.62.
● The pork cutout value slid 73 cents to $93.84, though movement improved to 408.2 loads.
● February lean hogs are trading within Monday’s upper range, with support at the 100- and 10-day moving averages, trading at $85.29 and $85.15, while resistance is at Monday’s high of $86.50.