GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybean led strength overnight, making up all of Monday’s losses and pressing near recent for-the-move highs. Wheat lagged behind, though did defend key technical support. All eyes are on the Middle East and potential trade disruptions, but bulls have been encouraged by rhetoric the U.S. and China summit is still on. The U.S. dollar index continues to surge higher, climbing over 800 points overnight. Front-month crude oil futures are trading fresh highs this morning as well.
USDA reported daily sales of 196,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Latest developments on war in the Middle East: --China urges “all sides” of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran war to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz --Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping traffic; U.S. denies that claim --Europe’s natural gas prices jump as much as 33% --Two drones attack U.S. embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia --Sec. of War Hegseth rejects “endless” war, while Trump insists no fixed timeline --Global stock markets lower and trader/investor anxiety increasing --Iran launched new missile wave on U.S. interests in Qatar, Bahrain, Oman U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are slated to meet in mid-March to discuss business deals that could stem from a planned summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported. “Among the issues that could be addressed are a possible Chinese purchase of Boeing Co. planes, commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and the future of U.S. fentanyl tariffs. The meeting marks the first sit-down between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials since the Supreme Court dealt a blow to Trump’s global tariff strategy, forcing him to pursue more restrictive and complicated means to impose trade levies,” said the Bloomberg report.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier’s latest weekly South American corn and soybean crops report saw him leave his 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 178.0 million tons with a neutral-to-lower bias. Brazil’s soybeans were 39% harvested as of late last week compared to 50% last year, according to AgRural. This is the slowest harvest pace in five years. Cordonnier also left his Brazil corn estimate unchanged this week at 135.0 million tons, with a neutral-to-lower bias. Safrinha corn in Brazil was 66% planted as of late last week compared to 80% last year, according to AgRural.The planting remains the slowest since 2022. Cordonnier’s Argentina soybean production estimate was left unchanged this week at 47.0 million tons, with a neutral-to-lower bias, “but if rainfall during March ends up dryer-than-normal, the production estimate will decline,” he said. His Argentina corn crop estimate was left unchanged this week at 53.0 million tons, with a neutral-to-lower bias. Corn in Argentina was 3.6% harvested as of late last week.The late-planted corn will continue to need additional moisture through the months of March and April, said Cordonnier.
CORN: May corn futures are butting up against 200-day moving average resistance at $4.49 3/4. Strength finds resistance at $4.53 3/4, the “scene of the crime” from the Jan. 12 reports. Support stands at $4.46 on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans made up all of Monday’s loss overnight. Gains have stalled near $11.75 resistance, while additional strength targets Monday’s high of $11.85. Support comes in at $11.65 then the 10-day moving average at $11.59 1/2 on selling pressure.
WHEAT: May SRW futures made up a portion of Monday’s loss overnight. Uptrend support at $5.72 3/4 limited the downside Monday and remains key support. Resistance stands at $5.91 1/2 on persistent strength.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s rebound following a lower open. Futures continue to trade well below the cash market, though reports of weaker cash trade are beginning to circulate, indicating weaker futures trade could be pulling cash lower. Wholesale beef meanwhile continues to rebound, as choice cutout rose another $1.50 to $381.34 Monday. The drop in cattle prices and strength in cutout is helping boost packer margins, which have spent months deep in the red.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid persistent strength in cash fundamentals. Futures have been weighed on by weakness in cattle futures the past couple days. The CME lean hog index continues to work higher as the CME lean hog index is up another 25 cents to $89.69. Pork cutout continues to work higher as well, rising 73 cents to $98.50 Monday, led by strength in ribs.