Market Snapshot | Ag complex continues to firm

May 21, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | May 21, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher.

  • Corn futures are higher for the third straight session and five of the last six amid continued support from short-covering and gains in wheat.
  • Additional rain will fall today from the far northwestern Corn Belt to Ohio and Michigan, further inducing relief from moisture deficits in the drier areas, though slowing fieldwork, notes World Weather Inc.
  • Brazil’s safrinha corn will become a little more stressed in the drier biased areas that were planted late. Yield potential may slip in some center-west areas.
  • Ethanol production averaged 1.036 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended May 16, up 43,000 bpd (4.3%) from the previous week and 17,000 bpd (1.7%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 501,000 barrels to 24.944 million barrels.
  • July corn futures are up against the 20-day moving average of $4.59 1/4, which is backed by the 200-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.61 1/2. Initial support lies at $4.51 1/2.

Soybeans are 8 to 11 cents higher, while soymeal futures are about $1.00 higher. Soyoil is around 30 points higher.

  • Soybeans are notably firmer as bulls work to recoup a bit more of last week’s losses.
  • In Argentina, one round of significant rain will occur during the next two weeks from north-central into northeastern areas, slowing fieldwork and elevating crop quality concerns.
  • Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told lawmakers Tuesday the forthcoming “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) report will not disparage American farmers or widely used agricultural chemicals. Testifying before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, Kennedy pushed back against Republican concerns that the MAHA Commission’s findings would unfairly criticize modern farming.
  • July soybeans have moved above the 20- and 10-day moving averages and are now facing resistance at $10.68 1/4. Initial support lies at $10.52.

Wheat futures are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures are extending recent short-covering strength on support from a weaker U.S. dollar.
  • A heatwave sweeping across northern China prompted authorities to issue alerts and roll out measures to ensure water supply and protect food production. The National Meteorological Center issued a yellow alert – the third highest – warning temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 F) in parts of Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and Hubei provinces and persist through Thursday.
  • Argentina will extend a tax break on wheat and barley exports that was set to expire at the end of June. The tax on wheat and barley will remain at 9.5% through March 2026.
  • July SRW futures are extending recent gains, with initial resistance now at $5.59 1/2, while the 10-day moving average of $5.42 3/4 serves as initial support.

Live cattle are posting modest gains in midmorning trade, while feeders are mostly lower.

  • Nearby live cattle are narrowly firmer as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop in earnest.
  • Cash cattle trade has been slow to develop, though a few hundred head have traded hands at $219.00 in Kansas, a little over $1.00 lower than last week’s average for the region.
  • Wholesale beef prices rose another $3.94 for Choice to $358.75 and 85 cents for Select to $344.96 on Tuesday. With packers’ near-term inventory the best it has been in weeks, their focus will be on improving margins by halting the surge in cash prices while continuing to strengthen wholesale values.
  • June live cattle continue to trade narrowly between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $213.93 and $212.22.

Hog futures are choppy in light trade at midsession.

  • Nearby lean hogs have traded narrowly on either side of unchanged this morning.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 39 cents to $91.85 as of May 19. While the cash index is climbing seasonally, traders are hesitant to build in too much premium.
  • The pork cutout value fell 57 cents on Tuesday to $100.52 amid declines in all cuts aside from primal hams and ribs. Movement totaled 304.3 loads.
  • June lean hogs are hovering mostly above the 20- and 40-day moving averages, which have converged at 99.15, while initial resistance stands at $100.58.