Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs rose $1.20 to $95.025, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market late this week is seeing more technical buying interest after prices Tuesday hit a nine-week high.
The latest CME cash index price (Sept. 2) is unchanged at $105.92. Friday’s projected index price is up 5 cents to $105.97. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $105.78. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down $2.00 to $112.73. Movement at midday was 165.43 loads.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy, six-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $97.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $91.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $95.40 and then at this week’s high of $96.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $93.75 and then at $92.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $1.375 to $236.95, nearer the daily low. September feeder cattle lost $2.25 to $359.825, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure from the speculators today, as well as some weak-long liquidation. The cattle market bulls need to step up and show some strength on Friday, in order to avoid technically bearish weekly low closes that would be one chart clue that market tops are in place.
Cash cattle trade has turned a bit more active late this week, with USDA reporting steers are so far averaging $242.48 and heifers averaging $242.42. Cash trade last week averaged $243.60. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values firmer, with Choice-grade up 28 cents to $416.29, while Select rose $1.72 to $389.45. Movement totaled at midday was good at 86 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $26.84.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in nine-week-old uptrends on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at the contract high of $242.075. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $239.025 and then at $240.00. First support is seen at $235.95 and then at $235.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $370.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $354.525. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $362.80 and then at Wednesday’s high of $364.20. First support is seen at $358.00 and then at $356.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.