Markets and government offices will be closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day. Consequently, Pro Farmer will not issue any updates. On Friday, markets will operate on an abbreviated schedule, closing early at 12:05 p.m. CT. Due to the shortened trading day, Pro Farmer will provide two essential reports:
- “First Thing Today”: Delivered Friday morning around 8:00 a.m. CT.
- “After the Bell”: Highlighting the day’s price action after the early close.
We will resume our normal publishing schedule on Monday. The team at Pro Farmer extends warm wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving.
Hogs
Price action: February lean hogs rose $2.375 to $81.375, nearer the session high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures today saw solid short covering and perceived bargain buying following recent losses. Strong gains in the cattle futures markets today also spilled over into buying interest in lean hog futures. Still, steadily declining cash hog prices will limit the upside in futures, until the cash market stabilizes and starts to turn back up.
The latest CME lean hog index is down another 80 cents to $82.81. Friday’s projected cash index price is down another 54 cents at $82.27. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $70.92. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up 98 cents to $93.23, led by gains in picnics. Movement at midday was decent at 212.91 loads.
Technical analysis: February lean hog futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close February futures prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $83.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $77.125. First resistance is seen at $82.00 and then at $83.00. First support is seen at $80.00 and then at today’s low of $78.825.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through December in the cash market. For corn, you now have all needs through November covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: February live cattle rose $5.60 to $212.925, nearer the daily high. January feeder cattle gained $8.05 to $315.125, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw solid corrective bounces and perceived bargain hunting following early-week losses.
USDA at midday today reported more active cash cattle trading at higher prices than fetched earlier this week. Steers were averaging $209.52 and heifers $210.18. Cash cattle trading last week averaged $217.41, said USDA, which was $7.65 below the prior week’s average of $225.06. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice-grade down $1.45 at $368.64, while Select-grade gained $2.55 to $358.48. Movement at midday was good at 115 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $10.16.
Upcoming cold temps and snow throughout the Northern Plains will bring concern over livestock stress from Saturday through Tuesday, when some of the coldest temps occur. More snow is expected in the next seven days.
Technical analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in downtrends on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close February futures above resistance at last week’s high of $223.05. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $200.00. First resistance is seen at $215.00 and then at $217.50. First support is seen at $210.00 and then at today’s low of $208.35.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close January futures prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $328.075. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance is seen at $320.00 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $308.525 and then at $305.00.
What to do: Cover your corn-for-feed needs in the cash market through November.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through December. For corn, you have all needs through November covered in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.