Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures rose 62 1/2 cents to $87.30, nearer the daily high and for the week down $3.75.
5-day outlook: December lean hogs today saw a modest corrective bounce but serious near-term technical damage was inflicted this week to suggest the speculative, chart-based bears will be pressing their case on the short side early next week. Bulls are hoping lean hog futures’ discounts to the cash hog index will limit selling interest in futures in the near term. Cash and pork market fundamentals have eroded recently.
The latest CME lean hog index fell 56 cents to $103.70. Monday’s projected cash index price is down another 86 cents to $102.84. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price today is $101.32. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $2.05 to $109.40, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was good at 222.26 loads.
30-day outlook: Seasonality studies show the cash hog index generally rises into early October. With pork at the meat counter still a much more affordable source of protein than beef, better consumer demand in the coming weeks would support rallies in cash hog, fresh pork and futures markets. The U.S. government shutdown has so far not rattled the marketplace or consumer attitudes. However, if the shutdown continues past next week, markets would become uneasy and in turn so would consumers. That scenario would be friendly for the hog and pork markets, as better demand for pork over beef would likely occur.
90-day outlook: Improved demand for U.S. pork abroad would keep a floor under the cash hog and futures markets. However, export sales of U.S. pork to China have been reduced due to trade tensions between the two countries. President Trump’s scheduled meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October will be closely monitored by ag markets, including hogs. Better U.S.-China trade and political relations would be bullish for the hog markets.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through December in the cash market. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle futures rose $1.025 to $234.50, near the session high and for the week up 20 cents. November feeder cattle futures rose $3.025 to $355.425, near the daily high and for the week up 95 cents.
5-day outlook: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw a choppy trading week. That’s not bullish given the stiff overhead technical resistance levels that could continue to keep the bulls tentative next week, especially with prices still historically elevated. Cash and beef market fundamentals have also eroded a bit the past couple of weeks.
Cash cattle trading turned more active today. USDA today reported steers fetched an average price of $229.96 and heifers an average of $230.30. That compares to last week’s average cash cattle trade at $232.65. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice-grade down 27 cents to $362.95, while Select-grade rose $2.19 to $345.99. Movement at midday was good at 122 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $17.36.
30-day outlook: The latest USDA cattle-on-feed report reminds that cattle supplies in U.S. feedlots remain historically tight. Overall consumer demand for beef has been good despite the elevated prices at the meat counter. Key for the cattle markets will be consumer demand for beef remaining solid in the coming weeks. The U.S. government shutdown has not rattled the marketplace or consumers, so far.
90-day outlook: The U.S. government shutdown and suspension of many key USDA reports and U.S. economic reports is leaving a void of information for the markets to trade on. The longer the data is suspended the more likely the marketplace will become more anxious. Such would be a negative for the cattle futures markets, due to keener risk aversion. Still, the latest data has shown the U.S. economy appears to be not quite strong enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from further lowering interest rates in the coming months, including at the late-October FOMC meeting.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through December. For corn, you have all needs through October covered in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.