Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures rose $1.00 to $96.025, near mid-range and hit a nine-week high. For the week, October hogs gained $2.05.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bullish weekly high close in October lean hogs will have the chart-based speculators looking to continue to play the long side of the market early next week. A stabilizing CME cash hog index late this week is also price-friendly for futures. The latest CME lean hog index rose 5 cents to $105.97 as of Sept 3, ending the recent string of losses. Monday’s projected cash index price is down 5 cents at $105.92. Also, the fresh pork market rebounded late this week. The noon report showed pork cutout value rose $2.60 to $115.92, led by gains in picnics and loins. Movement at midday was also solid at 240.29 loads.
30-day outlook: Hog slaughter levels have risen seasonally, while cash fundamentals have faded. While pork cutout values typically begin to fade after August, such has not been the case so far this year as wholesale values remain stable. Still-solid consumer demand for pork and a stabilizing cash hog cash index may suggest a September cash hog rally in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed 23,700 MT in U.S. pork sales abroad for 2025, down 44% from the previous week and down17% from the four-week average. China and the U.S. are still working to secure a trade deal. With China being a major pork importer, progress on a trade deal will remain a major focus for the hog market. Earlier today, China placed initial anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on pork imports worth over $2 billion from the European Union.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle futures fell 97 1/2 cents to $235.975, near mid-range and for the week down $3.675. September feeder cattle futures closed steady at $359.925, near mid-range and for the week down $4.95.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in October live cattle sutures sets the stage for follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week, much of which would be profit taking.
Cash cattle trading turned more active late this week. USDA today reported steers fetched an average price of $242.59 and heifers an average of $242.60. That’s just below the prior week’s average cash cattle trade at $243.60. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef values fell $3.16 to $411.05, while Select-grade lost 79 cents to $386.98. Movement at midday was solid at 84 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $24.07.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 16,600 MT for 2025, up 22% from the previous week and 51% from the four-week average.
30-day outlook: Choice-grade beef cutout continues to hover around levels seen only in the Covid-era in 2020, which suggests solid demand for cattle and beef. However, full cutout value pricing has likely not yet arrived at the meat counters and restaurant menus, which, when realized, could prompt a dip in retail demand for beef.
90-day outlook Today’s jobs report showed the U.S. job market cooled further in August, with nonfarm payrolls rising by just 22,000, well below forecasts of 75,000 and a sharp drop from July’s revised 79,000. The U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, signaling a slowdown in hiring momentum. That’s not good news for the economy and the stock market sold off following the news. Continued selling pressure in the stock market could crimp consumer confidence this fall, which would dampen consumer demand for beef. However, on the positive side of today’s jobs report, the markets read the data as meaning the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least 0.75% by the end of this year. That should be friendly for consumers this fall, who will have lower borrowing costs, which means better confidence and better demand for goods and services.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.