Hogs
Price action: April lean hog futures fell 85 cents to $94.35, near the daily low and closed at a two-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures today saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation as the near-term technical posture of the market has deteriorated, which is also inviting the chart-based speculators to the short side.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 23 cents at $91.20. Friday’s projected cash index price is up another 24 cents at $91.44. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $69.51. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up 24 cents at $98.65, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was decent at 124.69 loads.
USDA reported weekly pork sales of 23,700 MT for 2026, a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 34% from the previous week and 30% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: April lean hog futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close April futures prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $97.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $91.125. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $95.40 and then at this week’s high of $96.625. First support is seen at this week’s low of $94.10 and then at $93.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through March. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle rose $1.10 to $231.25, nearer the daily high. March feeder cattle lost $0.50 to $348.225, nearer the daily high and hit a 2.5-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The live cattle futures market today saw a modest corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The feeder cattle futures market paused today as the bulls work to stabilize prices. Renewed risk aversion in the general marketplace was evident today, which limited buying interest in cattle futures.
Lower cash cattle trading prices this week and worries about a JBS labor strike at a Greeley, Co. packing plant are also bearish elements for cattle futures. USDA at midday today reported more active cash cattle trading, with steers averaging $234.70 and heifers $235.05. The agency Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.94. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values up again. Choice-grade was up $1.45 at $398.15, while Select-grade rose $3.33 to $392.58. Movement at midday was decent at 83 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $5.57.
USDA reported weekly beef sales of 25,400 MT for 2026, a marketing-year high. Net sales were up noticeably from the previous week and 87% form the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Recent strong selling pressure in cattle futures produced chart damage to suggest at least near-term market tops are in place. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close April futures above resistance at $239.95. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $220.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $232.00 and then at this week’s high of $233.05. First support is seen at today’s low of $228.825 and then at this week’s low of $227.325.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close March futures prices above technical resistance at $364.825. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $352.00 and then at this week’s high of $355.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $345.55 and then at $344.00.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through March in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through March as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.