Hogs
Price action: August lean hogs rose $1.40 to $105.825, ending above the 10-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hogs gapped higher at the open amid corrective buying from this week’s low, as futures’ discounts to the cash index continue to limit seller interest. The CME lean hog index continues to post modest ups and downs, while cutout has firmed decidedly, with the noon report showing a 26-cent gain to $115.00, led by gains in ribs and bellies. Movement improved to 183.4 loads.
USDA reported net U.S. pork export sales of 17,100 MT for 2025 were down 30 percent from the previous week and down 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technical analysis: August lean hogs ended the session above the 10-day moving average of $105.56, though additional resistance at the 40- and 20-day moving averages, trading at $107.30 and $107.90 will likely curb an extension higher. Meanwhile, support will serve at $104.725, $103.975, $102.775, then at the 100- and 200-day moving averages.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell 22 1/2 cents to $223.675, nearer the daily high. August feeder cattle fell 57 1/2 cents to $325.00, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw some mild profit-taking and a pause from recent gains. Live cattle futures contracts’ sizeable discounts to the cash cattle market are limiting selling interest in futures.
Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals have weakened just a bit, overall, recently. Cash cattle trade has been light so far this week, with USDA reporting steers are fetching an average price so far of $231.73 and heifers averaging $233.43. Packers, which are cutting in the red at present, are hoping to buy cattle at lower prices to better manage supplies and margins. However, feedlots are in no hurry to sell at lower prices after last week’s strong gains in the cash market. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef cutout value down 48 cents to $372.37 and Select-grade down $2.00 at $355.91. Movement at midday was decent at 78 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $16.46,
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 8,800 MT for 2025, down 24% from the previous week and off 28% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $227.50. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $215.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $224.40 and then at $225.00. First support is seen at $221.00 and then at $220.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $330.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $326.875 and then at $328.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $323.625 and then at $321.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.