GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat were lower overnight and are expected to open daytime trade under light pressure. Key will be whether the lower open entices selling or buyers show up under the market. It’s possible neither could happen in a major way and light, choppy trade develops.
The weather outlook is little changed from previous forecasts. Most of the Corn Belt will get rain during the next week. High pressure ridge building over the Mid-South region next week will induce some excessive heat and humidity with rapid drying conditions over a few days, according to World Weather Inc. The high pressure ridge is then expected to shift to the west into the Rocky Mountain region and Plains by the last days of July. The westward shift into the high pressure ridge will allow rain to continue falling periodically in the Midwest and temperatures will be seasonably warm, but not oppressively hot.
The International Grains Council made no changes to its global corn, wheat or soybean production forecasts for 2025-26. IGC forecasts global production will rise 48 MMT (3.9%) to 1.276 billion MT for corn, 8 MMT (10%) to 808 MMT for wheat and 5 MMT (1.2%) to 428 MMT for soybeans.
Export sales for the week ended July 10:
Corn: Net sales of 97,600 MT for 2024-25 were a marketing-year low. Sales fell 92% from the previous week and 89% from the four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 565,900 MT. Analysts expected sales of 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT for 2024-25 and 400,000 to 900,000 MT for 2025-26.
Soybeans: Net sales of 271,900 MT for 2024-25, down 46% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 529,600 MT. Analysts expected sales of 200,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 400,000 MT for 2025-26.
Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 MT for 2025-26, down 13% from the previous week but up 8% from the four-week average. Sales were within the range of pre-report expectations from 300,000 MT to 700,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures paused the recent corrective gains overnight after completing a 23.6% retracement of the price drop from the February high to Monday’s contract low on Wednesday. Near-term resistance extends from yesterday’s high at $4.25 3/4 to the $4.35 area, which would be a 38.2% retracement. That area coincides with the 20-day moving average (around $4.25) and the 40- and 50-day averages (around $4.35). The 10-day moving average near $4.20 provides near-term support.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures failed to build on Wednesday’s strong corrective gains during the overnight session, but the pullback wasn’t strong. After five days of trading below the two-month broad consolidation area, yesterday’s price action pushed prices back into that range. Near-term support extends from $10.13 1/4 to $9.98 1/4. Near-term resistance is layered in the $10.20 to $10.40 range.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to chop around the $5.60 area. Near-term support extends to the May 13 contract low at $5.50 3/4. Near-term resistance is layered up to the $5.90 area. Bears have the slight upper hand technically.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a firmer tone on support from technical strength and big discounts to the cash market. August live cattle scored a contract high and an upside breakout from the short-term consolidation range on the daily chart on Wednesday, which is likely to produce followthrough buying. But profit-taking could limit buyer interest after the open as traders wait on cash cattle trade to develop. Not surprisingly, cash cattle negotiations have been slow this week. Packers want to buy cattle at lower prices as they manage supplies and margins amid weakening wholesale beef prices. Feedlots are in no hurry to sell at lower prices after last week’s strong gains, instead remaining content to hold back cattle and add some extra pounds if needed. Wholesale beef fell $4.87 to $372.85 for Choice and $4.67 to $357.91 for Select on Wednesday. USDA reported net beef sales of 8,800 MT for 2025, down 24% from the previous week and 28% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone in choppy trade. Seller interest will be limited by discounts to the cash index, while buying is likely to be capped by ideas the market has peaked seasonally. The CME lean hog index is up a penny to $107.20 as of July 15, continuing the recent up-and-down pattern following the pullback from the seasonal peak. Pork cutout firmed 72 cents to $114.74 on Wednesday, as wholesale prices gradually recover from the July 3 low after peaking in late June. USDA reported net pork sales of 17,100 MT for 2025, down 30% from the previous week and 48% from the four-week average.