GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 11 to 14 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade, giving up a significant chunk of Monday’s gains. Positioning is likely to continue to drive trade ahead of today’s USDA reports. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 250 points lower, volatile following this morning’s CPI report.
USDA reported daily export sales of 315,448 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 20,830 MT for delivery during 2024-25 and the remaining 294,658 MT for delivery in 2025-26.
Today comes what is arguably the most important data point of the month for the grain futures markets: USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports. Huge and likely record yields could be forecast today for the U.S. corn and soybean crops. A Reuters survey of analysts shows they expect, on average, U.S. corn crop production this year to total 15.99 billion bushels, with an average yield of 184.411 bushels an acre. The record for U.S. corn production is the 15.341-billion-bushel crop grown in 2023, while the record average yield of 179.6 bu. per acre was in 2024. U.S. corn harvested acres this year are forecast at 86.716 million. For soybeans the poll of analysts expects, on average, the U.S. soybean crop production this year to be 4.368 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.937 bushels an acre and U.S. harvested acres at 82.561 million. The U.S. soybean production record was made in 2021 when production totaled 4.465 billion bushels, while the record average yield per acre of 51.95 bushels happened in 2016. U.S. Corn ending stocks for marketing year 2024-25 are pegged by the Reuters survey at 1.321 billion bushels, with 2025-26 marketing year corn ending stocks seen at 1.900 billion bushels. Marketing year 2024-25 U.S. soybean stocks are seen at 345 million bushels, with 2025-26 ending stocks at 355 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks for marketing year 2025-26 are seen by the Reuters survey at 882 million bushels. The USDA report is released at 11:00 a.m. CDT.
USDA rated the corn crop as 72% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 68% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 49% “good” to “excellent” and 18% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined 2 points to 382.8. The soybean crop declined 1.3 points to 368.7. The spring wheat rating increased 3 points from the previous week and now stands at 347.3. Despite the slight decline, corn and soybean conditions remain strong for this time of year. Late summer typically sees crop stressors ramp up and cause conditions to deteriorate, but large declines in condition have not come yet this season.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data this morning. The headline inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, steady with June but below forecasts of 2.8%. Inflation in used vehicles led inflation higher, while inflation steadied for food and slowed slightly for shelter, energy and fuel. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, above 2.9% in June and above expectations of 3.0%.
CORN: December corn futures saw resurgent selling overnight. Trade is likely to remain consolidative ahead of today’s reports. Resistance stands at $4.07 3/4 on resurgent strength, while additional selling has bears looking to break prices below the psychological $4.00 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures gave up about half of Monday’s gain overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $10.05 then the 40-day moving average at $10.13 1/2 on report driven strength. Support comes in at $9.98 then $9.85 on further selling pressure.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw sharp selling overnight. Bulls are looking to hold prices above support at $5.28 1/2, which is reinforced by the contract low of $5.25. Resistance stands at $5.37 3/4 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals remain supportive. Nearby futures saw an indecisive day of trade on Monday as followthrough selling was met with resurgent buying interest. Last week’s cash cattle average fell modestly to $242.01, though that remains well above futures. Wholesale beef continues to surge higher, with Choice climbing $2.68 to $381.52 while Select climbed $4.52 to $359.61.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Nearby futures closed at recent highs on Monday, which is likely to lead to followthrough strength. Meanwhile, the recent bounce in the CME lean hog index has paused, as the index is down 23 cents to $110.02 as of Aug. 8. Wholesale pork climbed $1.69 to $119.09 Monday, led by a $8.52 surge in bellies.