Good morning!
Grains retreat overnight... Corn and soybeans pulled back from recent gains overnight, while wheat also weakened. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn and soybean futures are trading around a penny lower, winter wheat markets are 3 to 4 cents lower and spring wheat is around a penny lower. The U.S. dollar index is up around 400 points and front-month crude oil futures are about 25 cents higher.
Trump says Coca-Cola to use cane sugar in U.S. Coke production... President Donald Trump said Coca-Cola agreed to use cane sugar in its namesake soda, amid criticism of sweeteners such as high-fructose corn syrup by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “I have been speaking to Coca-Cola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so,” Trump, a noted Diet Coke drinker, posted Wednesday on Truth Social. “This will be a very good move by them – You’ll see. It’s just better!” Kennedy has called high-fructose corn syrup bad for Americans’ health, and “a formula for making you obese and diabetic.” But he has also criticized sugar. A Coca-Cola spokesperson said, “We appreciate President Trump’s enthusiasm for our iconic Coca-Cola brand. More details on new innovative offerings within our Coca-Cola product range will be shared soon.” The Corn Refiners Association said, “Replacing high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar doesn’t make sense. President Trump stands for American manufacturing jobs, American farmers, and reducing the trade deficit. Replacing high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar would cost thousands of American food manufacturing jobs, depress farm income, and boost imports of foreign sugar, all with no nutritional benefit.”
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended July 10, traders expect:
| 2024-25 expectations (in MT) | 2024-25 last week | 2025-26 expectations (in MT) | 2025-26 last week | |
| Corn | 500,000-1,200,000 | 1,262,076 | 400,000-900,000 | 888,562 |
| Wheat | NA | NA | 300,000-700,000 | 567,823 |
| Soybeans | 200,000-600,000 | 503,027 | 150,000-400,000 | 248,400 |
| Soymeal | 100,000-400,000 | 207,688 | 100,000-300,000 | 370,840 |
| Soyoil | 0-15,000 | 3,994 | 0-8,000 | 0 |
Mexico, Canada plan stronger trade relations after U.S. tariffs... Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the two agreed to strengthen trade collaboration amid the U.S. tariffs set to go in effect next month. Sheinbaum said she and Carney discussed strategies both countries were taking to negotiate with the Trump administration ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Sheinbaum also met recently with Mexican business leaders regarding the tariffs.
Canada moves to limit foreign steel imports amid U.S. tariff fallout... Canada will restrict imports of steel from countries other than the U.S. and Mexico starting Aug. 1, responding to mounting pressure from 50% U.S. tariffs on foreign metals. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the move is necessary to protect Canada’s domestic industry and prevent circumvention of U.S. trade measures, according to the Wall Street Journal. Carney noted that two-thirds of steel used in Canada is imported — far higher than in the U.S. or Europe — and that the new limits would help reduce that dependency. Under the new policy, countries without a free-trade agreement with Canada will be capped at 50% of their 2024 import volumes, with excess shipments facing a 50% tariff. Countries with free-trade agreements (excluding the U.S. and Mexico) will be allowed 2024-level volumes, with tariffs on anything above that.
USDA realigns FY 2025 sugar allocations... USDA has published a Federal Register notice announcing several adjustments to fiscal year (FY) 2025 sugar allocations. Key actions include reallocating surplus sugarbeet allocations to processors with deficits and shifting cane sugar allocations from Florida to deficit-holding Louisiana processors. Despite the shifts, USDA confirmed that domestic cane sugar supplies remain sufficient to meet the FY 2025 marketing allotment. Additionally, the agency reassigned 500,000 short tons raw value (STRV) of cane deficit to anticipated raw cane sugar imports, citing the absence of Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) sugar stocks. However, no beet sugar allocations were reassigned to imports due to uncertainty in late-season beet production. USDA also stated it does not anticipate using the Feedstock Flexibility Program for the 2024 crop year ending Sept. 30, 2025.
Exchange adjusts Argentine soybean, wheat production forecasts... The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 2024-25 soybean production estimate 1 MMT to 49.5 MMT, while maintaining its corn crop estimate at 48.5 MMT. The exchanged lowered its projected 2025-26 production forecast by 700,000 MT to 20 MMT amid a 200,000-hectare cut to planted area.
Senate narrowly passes $9 billion rescissions package, sends bill to House... The Senate passed a $9 billion rescissions package early Thursday morning, narrowly approving President Trump’s push to cancel foreign aid and public broadcasting funds. Attention now shifts to the House, where Republican leadership late Wednesday overcame internal divisions by cutting a deal on crypto legislation to clear the path for same-day floor action. If the rescissions bill isn’t passed by midnight Friday, the frozen funds must be released by the White House and spent as Congress originally intended.
Japan exports slide amid U.S. tariff turmoil... Japan’s exports fell for a second straight month in June, dragged lower by steep declines in car and steel shipments, as President Trump’s tariff barrage continues to roil global trade. The 0.5% year-over-year decline fueled fresh concerns that Japan may slip into a technical recession in the second quarter. Shipments to the U.S. tumbled 11.4%, with vehicle export values plunging 27% and steel dropping 29%, even as the number of cars shipped rose — a sign that Japanese automakers are slashing prices to absorb U.S. tariffs. Trump’s escalating tariff regime — including a baseline 10% tariff set to rise to 25% on Aug. 1, barring a deal — has left Tokyo scrambling to negotiate, with no breakthrough yet despite repeated trips by trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa.
China to help dairy, hog farmers control supplies... China will adjust dairy farm output capacity in an “orderly manner” and control new production, an official from the agriculture ministry said, in a bid to boost prices and help dairy farmers. China has also offered guidance to some top hog breeders to reduce production.
Slow developing cash cattle negotiations... Not surprisingly, cash cattle negotiations have been slow this week. Packers want to buy cattle at lower prices as they manage supplies and margins. Feedlots are in no hurry to sell at lower prices after last week’s strong gains, instead remaining content to hold back cattle and add some extra pounds if needed. Cash cattle are expected to trade generally steady this week, though there is again expected to be a wide range of prices.
Cash hog fundamentals stabilize... The CME lean hog index is up a penny to $107.20 as of July 15, continuing the recent up-and-down pattern following the pullback from the seasonal peak. Pork cutout firmed 72 cents to $114.74 on Wednesday, as wholesale prices gradually recover from the July 3 low after peaking in late June.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 7:30 a.m. Extended Weather Forecast — NWS
- 2:00 p.m. Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: July 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: July 2025 — ERS
- 2:00 p.m. Slaughter Weekly — NASS