GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn bulls have shown impressive resilience the past couple of days in the wake of Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production Report. If bulls manage to keep prices above $4.00 today, that could be a good sign a low is in place. Soybeans rebounded from Thursday’s weakness overnight, while wheat followed to the upside. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 375 points lower.
Our annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour is next week, Aug. 18-21. Look for daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CDT. Our final yields will be released on Friday, Aug. 21 at 1:30 p.m. CDT. We will produce our daily newsletters, though our “Crops Analysis” and “Livestock Analysis” will be replaced with an extended version of “After the Bell” all next week.
China’s economy broadly slowed in July, with factory activity, investment and retail sales disappointing, according to data released by the China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday. Production at Chinese factories and mines rose at the slowest pace since last November and increased at a less-than-expected 5.7% last month from a year earlier, compared with June’s gain of 6.8%. Retail sales grew 3.7%, year-on-year, in July, the slowest this year and down from 4.8% growth seen in June. China’s growth in fixed-asset investment in the first seven months of this year decelerated to 1.6% as a contraction in the real estate sector continued. The urban unemployment rate climbed more than expected in July, to 5.2%. The offshore Chinese yuan currency was steady after the slew of downbeat data. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell as much as 1.5% Friday, while the onshore CSI 300 Index ended the morning session 0.5% higher.
The National Weather Service reports hot temperatures are forecast over the Plains and into the lower Mississippi River Valley today, where heat advisories have been issued. The highest temperatures are forecast to spread from the central Plains to the Midwest this weekend, with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s and low 100s and heat index values in the low-to-mid 100s. “This level of heat is expected to create major to locally extreme heat risk in these regions, which could be hazardous to anyone without adequate cooling and/or hydration,” including livestock, said the NWS.
CORN: December corn futures continue to see modest strength. Bulls next objective is clearing the 10-day moving average at $4.02 3/4. Support comes in at $4.00 then $3.94 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw resurgent strength overnight. Resistance persists at the 200-day moving average at $10.37, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.44 1/4. Support comes in at $10.30 the n the 100-day moving average at $10.24 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw profit-taking overnight. Bulls are seeking to close prices above resistance at $5.32 1/2, the 10-day moving average, while support comes in at yesterday’s contract low of $5.21 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone. Futures fell under heavy selling pressure on Thursday but did close well off session lows. Bulls are likely going to be encouraged by stronger cash trade picking up mid-week. So far, cash cattle is averaging $243.46, which would be a record if sustained through the end of the week. Wholesale beef ended Thursday mixed as Choice cutout climbed another $3.30 to $393.79 while Select sunk $1.08 to $366.88.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid technical buying, but a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure could limit gains after the open. Action in the cash market remains choppy, as the CME lean hog index is up a nickel to $109.83 as of Aug. 13. Meanwhile, pork cutout slid $1.32 to $115.18 Thursday, led by losses in bellies and picnics.