GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Net sales reductions for old-crop corn and soybeans were rather disappointing today as traders and analysts alike are looking for old-crop exports to end the year strong. Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw resurgent selling pressure overnight. Soybean selling was limited by technical support and grains were limited by recent contract lows. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher.
Our annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour is next week, Aug. 18-21. Look for daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CDT. Our final yields will be released on Friday, Aug. 21 at 1:30 p.m. CDT. We will produce our daily newsletters, though our “Crops Analysis” and “Livestock Analysis” will be replaced with an extended version of “After the Bell” all next week.
U.S. Producer Price Inflation (PPI) rose 0.9% month-over-month in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is up from a flat reading in June. It was well above expectations of 0.2% and was the biggest increase in producer prices since June 2022. Cost of services led inflation higher and was quickly tailed by an increase in cost of goods, largely due to a jump in fresh and dry vegetables. Year-on-year, headline producer inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 3.3% and above expectations of 2.5%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also went up 0.9%, above forecasts of 0.2%. On the year, Core PPI is up 3.7% from 2.6% previously. Producer inflation surging above expectations could lead to heightened consumer costs in the coming months and could hamstring the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
Export sales for the week ended Aug. 7:
Corn: Net sales reductions of 88,700 MT for 2024-25 were a marketing year low. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 2.048 MMT. Analysts expected sales of 150,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25 and 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT for 2025-26.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 377,600 MT for 2024-25, a marketing year low. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 1.133 MMT, topping pre-report estimates. Sales topped expected sales of 200,000 to 700,000 MT for 2024-25 and 400,000 to 900,000 MT for 2025-26.
Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 MT for 2025-26, down 2% from the previous week but up 14% from the four-week average. Sales were within the range of pre-report expectations from 400,000 to 850,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures gave up Wednesday’s gain overnight. Support persists at the contract low at $3.92. Resistance stands at the psychological $4.00 mark on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw profit-taking overnight. The 200-day moving average limited the downside at $10.37, which is reinforced by support at $10.25. Resistance stands at $10.44 1/4 then the psychological $10.50 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures are trading near contract lows. Support lies at $5.23 1/4 then $5.20. Resistance stands at $5.33 1/2 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Futures were sharply higher yesterday morning but eventually reversed lower and closed near technical support. Price action is likely to continue to remain volatile as prices are near record levels. Cash cattle trade initiated at $232.00 this week, which would be a sharp decline from a week ago. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed as Choice cutout slipped 9 cents to $390.49 while Select climbed $2.32 to $367.96.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical selling is likely to limit prices. August futures go off the board at noon today. The CME lean hog index is down another 6 cents to $109.78 as of Aug. 12. Pork cutout ended Wednesday higher, rising $1.80 to $116.50, led by strength in picnics and bellies. Seasonal weakness is weighing on deferred futures but big discounts to the cash market will likely limit the downside.