Hogs
Price action: June lean hogs surged $1.85 to $100.70 and closed near session highs.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures broke out higher on the daily bar chart today as strength in cash fundamentals has helped boost futures. After falling earlier this week, the CME lean hog index has rebounded and climbed to new highs. The index is up 46 cents to $90.77 as of May 13, a fresh for-the-move high. The preliminary calculation puts the index up another quarter to $91.02 tomorrow. Recent strength in the index has boosted premiums in summer futures over the past few days, which has been also due in part due to this week’s tariff suspension with China, which will likely lead to an increase in pork exports. The cutout market has already somewhat priced in this bullish development as cutout has surged to the upper end of the recent sideways range that has capped most of the price action over the past couple of months. Cutout surged another $2.01 at midsession today to $99.15 and looks poised to challenge the psychological $100.00 mark. Gains in bellies, picnics and butts helped boost cutout this morning.
Technical analysis: June lean hog futures broke higher today, giving bulls the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next objective is closing prices above the April 28 high of $101.975, which sees little backing until $104.20. Support comes in at the psychological $100.00 mark on a reversal back lower, which is quickly backed by $99.50, then the 10-day moving average at $98.85.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered in the cash market through June.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell $2.775 to $211.175, near the session low and hit a two-week low. August feeder cattle fell $6.15 to $295.825, near the session low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets saw more heavy profit-taking pressure today following a major bull run to record highs in recent trading sessions. Bulls now appear to be exhausted. A bit less risk appetite in the general marketplace late this week likely helped to trigger the selling pressure.
Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain solid. Light cash cattle trading has occurred so far this week, but at higher money. USDA today reported steers and heifers are trading at around $227.00 late this week, which is well above last week’s USDA-reported average cash trade at $224.80. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef values rise 88 cents to $350.24, while Select rose $2.97 to $338.82. Movement at midday was light at 44 loads. The Choice-Select spread is currently $11.42.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 14,600 MT for 2025, up 91% from the previous week and up 31% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Bearish “key reversals” down on the daily bar charts have occurred in June live cattle and August feeder cattle futures, which is one technical clue that market tops are in place. Still, live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in uptrends on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at the contract high of $218.625. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $205.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $213.525 and then at $215.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $212.375 and then at $210.00. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $307.675. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $285.00. First resistance is seen at $298.00 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at $294.00 and then at $292.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered in the cash market through June.