Hogs
Price action: February lean hog futures fell 42 1/2 cents to $87.85, near the session low and hit a three-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures today saw some mild and routine profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators following recent strong gains. A “risk-off” trading mentality in the general marketplace today worked to limit buying interest in hog futures. The premium futures hold to the cash hog and CME index suggest futures traders look for a rebounding cash hog market in the coming weeks.
The latest CME lean hog index is up $1.26 at $81.76. Wednesday’s projected cash index price is up another 27 cents at $82.03. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was not available. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up 10 cents at $94.30, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was 182.66 loads.
Technical analysis: February lean hog futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close February futures prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $83.775. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.775 and then at $90.00. First support is seen at $87.00 and then at $86.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through February. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: February live cattle rose 22 1/2 cents to $232.375, near mid-range. March feeder cattle rose $1.225 to $357.675, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw the bulls try to stabilize their markets following Friday’s debacle with New World Screwworm that spooked cattle traders. A “risk-off” trading mentality in the general marketplace today worked to limit buying interest in cattle futures.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and the Texas Department of Agriculture (TDA) late last week alerted Texas livestock producers following confirmation from Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Public Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) of eight new cases of New World screwworm (NWS) in the state of Tamaulipas, which borders Texas. These new detections raise the total number of confirmed cases in Tamaulipas since December 30, 2025, to 11. The uncertainty of the matter, including perceptions from U.S. beef consumers, had the cattle futures traders on edge last Friday.
USDA today reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $232.50, up 64 cents from the prior week average at $231.86. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed. Choice-grade was up $1.99 at $366.32, while Select-grade fell 79 cents to $359.54. Movement at midday was 54 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $6.78.
World Weather Inc. today said livestock stress and travel delays are expected in southern production areas Friday through the weekend due to snow, sleet, freezing rain and bitter cold temperatures.
Technical analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close February futures above resistance at $240.375, which is the top of a downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. First resistance is seen at $2.35 and then at last week’s high of $237.55. First support is seen at $231.00 and then at last week’s low of $229.25.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close March futures prices above technical resistance at $370.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance is seen at $360.00 and then at last week’s high of $365.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $353.65 and then at $350.00.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through February in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through February as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.