Hogs
Price action: December lean hogs fell 70 cents to $90.35, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw profit-taking pressure following recent good gains that saw December hogs hit a contract high Friday. The speculators are still a bit leery about playing the short side of a market that is still strongly bullish, technically. Futures’ discounts to the cash hog index are also limiting selling interest in futures.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 23 cents at $104.83. Tuesday’s projected cash hog index is down 5 cents at $104.78. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $104.56. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up 58 cents to $114.10, led by gains in picnics. Movement at midday was 156.78 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures bulls still the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $95.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $86.525. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $91.525 and then at $93.00. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $89.725 and then at $88.00
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through December in the cash market. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle fell 47 1/2 cents to $233.825, near mid-range. November feeder cattle lost 60 cents to $353.875 and nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle markets were in a pause mode today. The cattle and fresh beef market fundamentals have deteriorated a bit the past couple weeks. The U.S. government is on the verge of a shutdown Wednesday, with the Trump administration warning of mass firings in federal agencies if a shutdown occurs. That’s also likely keeping the cattle futures bulls a bit tentative early this week.
USDA today reported that cash cattle trading last week averaged $232.65. The prior week’s cash cattle trading average price was $237.51. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice-grade up $1.94 to $373.37, while Select fell $2.90 to $349.54. Movement at midday was 49 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $23.83.
Technical analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls have faded recently to suggest major market tops are in place. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at last week’s high of $241.35. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $230.075. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $235.10 and then at $236.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $232.175 and then at $231.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $363.775. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of $342.125. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $357.05 and then at today’s high of $360.00. First support is seen at $352.00 and then at last week’s low of $349.125.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through December. For corn, you have all needs through October covered in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.