Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures fell $2.15 to $95.125, near the daily low and hit another five-month low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw still more technical selling featured today. The near-term technical posture for June hogs remains firmly bearish as prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 45 cents at $91.00. Friday’s projected cash index price is up 7 cents at $91.07. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $93.10. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down $0.36 at $95.11, led by big losses in bellies. Movement at midday was 178.03 loads.
USDA reported net U.S. pork export sales totaled 34,600 MT for 2026 during the week ended May 14, up 65% from the previous week and 21% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: June lean hog futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November 2025 low of $93.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $97.20 and then at Wednesday’s high of $98.225. First support is seen at $95.00 and then at $94.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal and corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through May. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell $4.125 to $249.15, near the daily low. August feeder cattle fell the daily trading limit of $9.25 to $356.2525. Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures will see expanded trading limits on Friday.
Fundamental analysis: The big limit-down sell off in feeder cattle futures today helped to lead live cattle futures down, too. Heavy profit-taking and weak long liquidation were featured in feeder futures today, which spilled over into strong price pressure in live cattle futures. Cattle futures traders are expecting a bearish USDA cattle-on-feed report on Friday–specifically the placements figure.
Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report is expected to show cattle on Feed as of May 1 at 11.558 million head, which would be 101.6% of the level seen one year ago at the same time. Placements in April are seen at 103.4 percent of last year, at 1.668 million head. Marketings in April are seen at 90.7% of one year ago, at 1.655 million head. These numbers are from a Reuters survey of analysts.
USDA at midday today reported moderate cash cattle trading so far this week, with steers averaging $264.35 and heifers $263.68. Last week’s average cash cattle trade was a record-high at $262.85--up $4.33 from the week prior. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values lower. Choice-grade was down $0.77 at $392.95, while Select-grade lost $3.61 to $387.52. Movement at midday was 60 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $5.33.
USDA today reported U.S. beef export sales totaled 81,00 MT for 2026 during the week ended May 14, up 7% from the previous week and 31% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live cattle futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at the contract high of $256.625. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $245.475. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $253.475 and then at this week’s high of $255.775. First support is seen at today’s low of $248.80 and then at $245.475.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $370.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance is seen at $360.00 and then at $363.00. First support is seen at the May low of $351.975 and then at $350.00.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed and soymeal needs through May in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn and soymeal for feed needs covered in the cash market through May. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.