Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures fell $0.70 to $104.475, near mid-range and for the week down $1.65.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures bears had the better holiday-shortened week, amid declining cash hog and CME lean hog index prices recently. Still-wobbly trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace is keeping the speculator hog futures bulls leery amid the ongoing war in Iran.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $90.41. Monday’s projected cash index price is down another 24 cents at $90.17. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $70.36. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $2.23 at $97.81, led by gains in butts and hams. Movement at midday was 127.09 loads.
30-day outlook: Cash hog price weakness amid weak pork packer margins have limited buyer interest in lean hog futures recently. However, the current futures structures versus the cash index indicate the market expects significantly higher cash hog prices by June futures contract settlement, driven by seasonal grilling demand and tighter supplies. As the seasonal hog slaughter decline continues, we expect a rebound in the cash index to likely occur by mid-April. Demand for pork domestically and for export should continue to prove supportive for cash and futures.
90-day outlook: USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 53,000 MT for 2026, up 32% from the previous week and 65% from the four-week average. An important element in the coming months for the cash hog and futures markets will be export demand for U.S. pork. Reports out of China say the world’s leading pork consumer is flush with hogs, which does not bode well for better Chinese purchases of U.S. pork. However, a successful Trump-Xi summit in China, scheduled for mid-May, could produce some increased China demand for U.S. pork.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through April in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through April. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle futures rose $1.975 to $246.325, near the daily high, hit a contract high and for the week up $7.55. May feeder cattle futures gained $2.625 to $370.625, near the daily high hit a a 5.5-month high and for the week up $10.80.
5-day outlook: The live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets finished this holiday-shortened week strong, including technically bullish weekly high closes that suggest follow-through buying strength early next week. Technical buying was featured again today. Cattle bulls were also encouraged by higher cash cattle trading so far this week. USDA Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading this week, averaging $238. The agency earlier this week reported cash trading last week averaged $235.69. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values solidly down. Choice-grade was down $3.99 at $390.43, while Select-grade fell $4.91 to $387.68. Movement at midday was 66 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $2.75.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 11,900 MT for 2026, up 12% from the previous week, but down 6% from the four-week average.
World Weather Inc. today said Friday and Saturday will bring substantial snowfall to the Northern Plains. Snow accumulations will be great enough to shut down travel in portions of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota--and livestock stress is likely as well.
30-day outlook: Cash cattle prices are trending higher again. Tight supplies will continue to favor feedlot operators in cash negotiations in the coming weeks, especially with the outdoor grilling season just ahead. Recent heat and winds across the Plains have underscored the tight beef supplies.
90-day outlook: Worrisome for the cattle market bulls is the war in Iran and its economic consequences in the coming months. Higher gasoline prices may curtail consumer demand for beef at the meat counter. Outdoor grilling season is getting closer but if gasoline prices at the pump are close to or above $4.00 a gallon, many consumers will be looking to buy more economical protein in the grocery store. Reports of a possible limited reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border have failed to curtail recent price strength. Secretary Brooke Rollins this week said she expects an announcement either way within the next two to four weeks.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through April in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through April. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through April as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.