Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs rose 15 cents to $97.475, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market is seeing some chart consolidation late this week, after hitting a contract high Tuesday. The near-term technical posture for October hogs remains firmly bullish, which is keeping sellers timid at present. However, the wobbly cattle futures markets this week also have the hog bulls a bit leery.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 14 cents at $105.86. Friday’s projected cash hog index is down another 16 cents at $105.70. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $105.70. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $1.06 to $112.04, led by gains in picnics. Movement at midday was good at 206.43 loads.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 22,000 MT for 2025, up 27% from the previous week but down 14% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy, two-month-old price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $93.50. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $98.90 and then at $100.00. First support is seen at $96.725 and then at $95.00
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle rose $1.275 to $232.375, nearer the daily high. September feeder cattle rose $3.15 to $358.175, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today clawed back some of Wednesday’s losses but the bulls are still wobbly amid deteriorating cash and beef market fundamentals and fading near-term technical postures.
Light cash cattle trading has been reported by USDA so far this week, at an average of $237.49 for steers and $237.29 for heifers. Last week’s cash cattle trade averaged $239.33. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values lower again, with Choice-grade down $1.73 to $386.45, while Select fell $2.16 to $364.21. Movement at midday was 58 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $22.23.
USDA reported U.S. beef weekly export sales of 15,800 MT for 2025, up 31% from the previous week and up 21% from the four-week average.
Cattle market bulls are hoping Friday afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report will be price-friendly and remind cattle traders of the still-tight feedlot cattle supplies.
Technical analysis: The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $236.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $228.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $232.65 and then at this week’s high of $234.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $229.45 and then at last week’s low of $228.80.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at $362.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $349.725. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $359.75 and then at $361.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $353.00 and then at $351.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.