Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs rose $1.35 to $98.175, near the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market bulls are rolling amid chart-based buying from the speculators as prices continue to trend higher. However, the futures market is now short-term overbought, technically, and due for a corrective pullback soon. Also supporting hog futures today, there are ideas consumers may be less reluctant to buy beef at the meat counter this fall, following some recent downbeat U.S. economic data this week, including today’s weekly jobless claims report that showed a surprising rise in claims.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $105.93. Friday’s projected cash hog index is up 10 cents to $106.04. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $106.04. The noon report today showed pork cutout value fell 91 cents to $113.86, led by losses in bellies. Movement at midday was 169.79 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 17,300 MT for 2025, down 27% from the previous week and down 35% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy, seven-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $93.50. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $98.35 and then at $99.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $96.00 and then at$95.00
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle rose $1.125 to $232.275, nearer the daily high. September feeder cattle gained $2.025 to $355.225, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls again today worked to stabilize their markets following Tuesday’s downdraft. Bulls are making headway and price gains to end the week on Friday would be an early clue the downside price corrections have ended and the cattle markets can at least trade sideways in the near term. Still, the bulls have a steep hill to climb, especially after another downbeat piece of U.S. economic data today in the form of a surprisingly large gain in weekly jobless claims that may erode consumer confidence and in turn reduce demand for beef at the meat counter.
There was more active cash cattle trading reported by USDA today, with steers averaging $238.98 and heifers averaging $238.28. USDA said last week’s cash cattle trade averaged $242.55, which compares to $243.60 the week prior. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout mixed today, with Choice-grade up 31 cents to $405.95, while Select fell $1.23 to $382.45. Movement at midday was 54 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $23.50.
USDA reported U.S. beef export sales of 12,100 MT for 2025, down 27% from the previous week but up 8% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at this week’s high of $236.875. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $222.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $234.10 and then at $235.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $229.00 and then at $227.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at this week’s high of $362.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $345.00. First resistance is seen at $358.00 and then at $359.00. First support is seen at $353.00 and then at this week’s low of $350.025.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.