Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Cotton producers: Extend 2024-crop sales... December cotton futures have rallied for six straight days, hitting our sales target of 69.00 cents. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 40% of 2024-crop production to get to 75% sold in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional sales on further price strength as the old-crop marketing year ends on July 31.
Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... Republicans are scrambling to get a massive tax and spending measure passed by the July 4 recess. It will eventually get passed, but not likely by the President Trump’s self-imposed deadline. Our News page 4 feature looks at the tax provisions for agriculture and farmers in House and Senate reconciliation measures. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is delaying announcements of any trade deals until the reconciliation measure is passed, though officials say there are 10 deals ready to be announced soon. U.S. crop weather is generally favorable and Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is getting bigger – potentially much bigger. That has funds comfortable pumping money into short positions. USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report showed an unexpected modest uptick in herd size, while the Cattle on Feed Report showed feedlot supplies remaining at an eight-year low. Geopolitical concerns eased, as Israel and Iran agreed to a Trump-brokered ceasefire. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Trump ends trade talks with Canada... President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. was terminating trade talks with Canada over tariffs on dairy products and what he called an egregious digital-services tax on U.S. tech companies.
“We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country,” Trump said on Truth Social. “Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately.”
Potential market-moving data coming Monday... USDA will release its Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT on Monday, June 30. Both reports have the ability to greatly impact markets – and this is historically the most volatile trading day of the year. The pre-report estimates for the Acreage Report suggest analysts on average expect relatively modest changes from March planting intentions. However, the ranges for expectations for corn and soybean plantings are wide, so there could be a surprise. Quarterly stocks have consistently been difficult for analysts to peg, especially corn. The range of estimates for June 1 corn stocks is 325 million bu., meaning someone will be surprised. Click here to view pre-report estimates.
Senate prepares for marathon weekend on budget reconciliation bill... The Senate is pressing ahead with plans to take up the sweeping budget reconciliation package, informally dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” as early as this weekend. A motion to proceed could come Saturday, with a marathon “vote-a-rama” session likely starting Sunday and stretching into Monday.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and President Donald Trump have both warned Senators that the chamber will not adjourn for the July 4 recess until the bill is passed. While the Senate Ag Committee successfully revised its Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provisions to secure approval from the Senate parliamentarian, the bill’s Medicaid savings — totaling up to $290 billion — remain in limbo after being struck down by the parliamentarian. Negotiations on Medicaid language are ongoing. Even if the Senate manages to pass the package by early next week, Republican leaders face further hurdles in the House, where some members have already signaled opposition to accepting the Senate’s version. With razor-thin majorities in both chambers, GOP leadership faces a tough road to final passage.
Trump scores major SCOTUS ruling... The Supreme Court delivered a significant victory for Trump, ruling 6-3 to sharply limit the power of federal judges to issue nationwide injunctions against presidential executive actions. The justices said courts can no longer block federal policies for all affected parties unless a lawsuit is formally certified as a class action.
Justice Amy Coney Barrett declared, “The Court today puts an end to the ‘increasingly common’ practice of federal courts issuing universal injunctions.”
Colorado River states near supply-based water deal as federal deadline approaches... States sharing the drought-stricken Colorado River are nearing a possible breakthrough, just as the Trump administration warns that failure to agree by Nov. 11 will trigger federal intervention.
Negotiators from the Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) are considering a new proposal from the Lower Basin (Arizona, California and Nevada) to allocate water based on the river’s actual flow over the previous three years, replacing outdated, projection-based agreements. This “supply-driven” approach would allow each basin to manage its share according to real-time river conditions, amid a historic decline in water levels.
Key details remain unsettled, including whether Upper Basin states will still be bound by past “delivery obligations.”
Chronic drought has cut Colorado River flows well below what was envisioned in the 1922 Compact, forcing tough negotiations over shrinking resources. Federal officials stress they prefer a state-led solution, but warn they are ready to act if needed. Interior Department negotiator Scott Cameron said if a draft deal isn’t reached by November, the federal government will impose its own plan. A final agreement is needed by early 2026.
OPEC+ set to make another accelerated oil output hike for August... OPEC+, is set to announce another big increase of 411,000 barrels per day 9 (bpd) in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters. If the increase is agreed, it would bring the total rise in supply from OPEC+ to 1.78 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to over 1.5% of total global demand.
Two sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said the group may discuss a more than 411,000 bpd increase for August, although it was not clear that all members supported such a move.