Rates unchanged, uncertainty ahead: Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and maintained expectations of one rate cut this year, acknowledging increasing uncertainty due to the war in the Middle East.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, calling for a quarter-point reduction.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that officials would have to see progress toward lowering inflation, especially goods inflation that had been boosted by tariffs, to resume lowering rates. “If we don’t see progress, then we won’t see the rate cut,” Powell noted in post-meeting remarks.
Policymakers, in their post-meeting statement, further underscored the uncertainty they’re facing in the economy. “It is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy. The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows, Powell stated.
Powell also indicated that he had “no intention” of resigning as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors until an investigation by the Department of Justice into a building renovation project at the Fed is “well and truly over.” He also said that if his successor is not confirmed before his term as chair ends in May, he would serve as chair pro tempore, according to Bloomberg.
Evidence of inflation: U.S. producer prices increased by the most in seven months in February, driven by higher costs for services and a range of goods, and could accelerate further as the war in the Middle east boosts oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persist, according to Reuters.
The stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index Report also suggested key inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve posted significant gains in February.
There were increases in the prices of food and alcohol wholesaling, securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice and related services as well as fuels and lubricants retailing and long-distance trucking.
After the PPI data, economists estimated PCE inflation increased 0.4% in February after rising 0.3% in January. Estimates for PCE inflation excluding volatile food and energy components converged around a 0.4% gain, though some economists slightly lowered their prior forecasts.
That would mark the third straight month that the so-called core PCE price index would have risen by 0.4%, more than double the monthly pace of the increase that economists say is needed on a sustained basis to bring inflation back to its target.
Core PCE inflation was estimated to have increased 3.0% year-on-year in February after advancing 3.1% in January.
Jones Act waiver stirs concerns: The Trump administration announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, earlier today, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other goods between U.S. ports to combat price increases and supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, according to Reuters.
The waiver is a rare exception to the century-old law, which underscores the administration’s urgency to calm soaring fuel and fertilizers for both consumers and U.S. farmers.
The American Maritime Partnership, a Washington-based advocacy group representing U.S. ship operators, said it was “deeply concerned” that the 60-day broad waiver would be misused in a way that displaces U.S. workers and companies, arguing the exemption is intended only for immediate threats to military operations.
Meanwhile, analysts have warned that the move is unlikely to significantly lower prices at the pump. Brett Erickson, a managing principle at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the Jones Act Waiver, along with other efforts, will not have a meaningful impact on prices. “We’re completely at the mercy right now of Iran, and as long as they have a credible threat to maritime shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, we’re in a quagmire right now,” state Erickson.
Big corn acres?: S&P Global Energy has released its U.S. planting projections for the 2026, which are based on the results of a monthly survey of farmers and agribusinesses.
It forecasts U.S. farmers will plant 95.2 million acres of corn and 85.0 million acres of soybeans.
The firm’s corn acreage projection was up slightly from its January estimate of 95.0 million acres, but well below 98.8 million acres seeded in 2025.
Its soybean acreage projection also rose slightly from January’s 84.5 million acres, and well above the 81.2 million acres planted in 2025.
The firm estimated winter wheat plantings for harvest in 2026 at 44.05 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection, but down by around 1.3 million acres from 2025.
Tariff woes: The number of companies suing for tariff refunds has spiked in recent weeks, a sign that many importers aren’t confident yet in the Trump administration’s plans to create a claims process after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the president’s trade policies, according to Bloomberg.
Nearly 1,000 new cases were filed in a U.S. trade court since March 1, according to a Bloomberg News review of publicly available records – that’s roughly a third of the more than 3,000 tariff lawsuits brought over the past year.
Brazil braces for fertilizer disruptions: Fertilizer problems could begin to surface in Brazil if the conflict in the Middle East does not ease soon, according to its Agriculture Minister, Carlos Favaro. He warned that a prolonged conflict could create broader risks for the country’s farm sector, which imported a record 45.5 million metric tons of fertilizer in 2025.
Favaro also condemned fertilizer sellers for sharp increases in local urea prices as analysts indicated farmers may turn to cheaper alternatives, according to Reuters. “It is a concern, naturally. There is a sense that there is a certain opportunism in the market, after all, stocks already present in Brazil have been repriced. That makes no sense,” he said.
Stonex reported prices of urea delivered to Brazil jumped about 35% in two weeks, making the product less attractive to buyers and potentially pushing importers and farmers toward cheaper options such as ammonium sulfate. According to data from the brokerage, Brazil’s urea imports in the first two months of the year fell 33% from a year earlier, while ammonium sulfate imports rose 19%.
Alternative oil route: Saudi Arabia has already ramped up its oil exports to more than half of normal levels despite the disruptions from the Iran war, according to Bloomberg.
With Hormuz all but closed, Saudi Arabia has been rerouting oil through a 1,200-kilometer (746 mile) pipeline to the western port of Yanbu. The country has also amassed a huge armada of tankers that have set sail toward the Red Sea to load the oil and are now piling up around the port. Shipments from Yanbu have averaged about 41.9 million barrels a day over the past five days, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg – a significant share of the roughly 7 million barrels the kingdom was exporting in total before the war and sharply higher than the 1.4 million barrels previously moved through the port.