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Your Pro Farmer newsletter is now available... An active weather pattern continued to bring rains to most major U.S. crop areas, creating generally favorable conditions for summer crops. The extreme heat this weekend and early next week will cause crop stress, especially in the driest areas, but is expected to be temporary. The extended forecast suggests above-normal temps and varied precip are likely through September. The greatest area of risk for dryness through the growing season is Nebraska, along with portions of southern South Dakota and far northern Kansas. The conflict between Israel and Iraq escalated, causing shipping rates in the Middle East to soar. While that won’t impact grain movement much, there are risks for diesel and fertilizer if the situation continues to escalate. Our News page 4 feature breaks down EPA’s biofuels mandates for 2026 and 2027, which were especially friendly for soyoil. The Supreme Court delivered another win for the biofuels sector by ruling all legal challenges to small refinery exemptions under the renewable fuel standard should be heard by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. The Fed remained in pause mode, as widely expected, but new economic projections painted a slightly stagflationary outlook. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can access here.
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral... USDA estimated there were 11.442 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of June 1, down 141,000 head (1.2%) from year-ago. May placements declined 7.8% and marketings fell 10.1% from year-ago levels, with both categories slightly lower than the average pre-report estimates.
| Cattle on Feed Report | USDA(% of year-ago) | Average Estimate (% of year-ago) |
| On Feed on June 1 | 98.8 | 98.9 |
| Placements in May | 92.2 | 94.1 |
| Marketings in May | 89.9 | 90.7 |
Placements declined in all but the 9-weight category, which was steady with year-ago. Placements fell 15.2% for lightweights (under 600 lbs.), 12.7% for 6-weights, 7.2% for 7-weights, 2.8% for 8-weights and 11.1% for heavyweights (1,000-plus lbs.).
On a state-by-state basis, placements fell 85,000 head in Texas, 50,000 head in Colorado, 15,000 head in Kansas and 10,000 head in “other states.” Nebraska placements were equal to May 2024.
The data is neutral compared to the pre-report expectations, but continues to paint an overall bullish supply picture.
NWS: Hot temps, with dryness likely across western crop areas through September... The 90-day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for elevated chances for above-normal temps over the entire U.S. through September. The precip outlook calls for increased odds of below-normal rainfall over most of the western Corn Belt, Northern Plains and PNW during the period. There are “equal chances” for normal, above-normal and below-normal precip for most of Iowa through most of the central and eastern Corn Belt. Above-normal rainfall is likely for the far eastern Corn Belt, Delta, Southeast and East Coast through September. The Seasonal Drought Outlook shows the greatest area of risk for dryness is Nebraska, along with portions of southern South Dakota and far northern Kansas through September. Timeliness of rainfall will be key in these areas.
Click here to view related maps.
No agriculture carveouts in deportation policy... President Donald Trump is not planning any immediate carveouts for the agriculture industry from his sweeping deportation policies, despite confusion sparked by a recent social media post and mounting pressure from farmers and business owners. According to Semafor, two senior administration officials confirmed the White House is proceeding with worksite immigration raids across all sectors — including agriculture, hotels and restaurants.
Just days after Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) briefly paused most “enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture… restaurants and operating hotels,” the administration reversed course. Trump border czar Tom Homan clarified that “worksite raids in those industries would continue on a prioritized basis.”
Despite suggestions from Trump that more help for agriculture could come later, administration officials said any formal protections are not in the works. One official noted that more specific carveouts might be considered after Congress passes the president’s tax and spending bill, but for now, there’s no imminent relief.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins — who pressed Trump to exempt agricultural businesses from immigration raids — sought to dispel any sense of division within the administration. “The President and I have consistently advanced a ‘Farmers First’ approach, recognizing that American households depend upon a stable and LEGAL agricultural workforce,” she wrote on X. But she added, “Severe disruptions to our food supply would harm Americans. It took us decades to get into this mess and we are prioritizing deportations in a way that will get us out.”
Court orders EPA to reassess climate impacts of biofuel volumes... A federal appeals court has directed EPA to revisit its analysis of the climate impacts associated with its 2023 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “set rule.” The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals found that EPA improperly relied on outdated data — specifically, a 2010 study — instead of using newer scientific evidence when it concluded that corn-based ethanol reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to gasoline.
The court called the agency’s analysis “arbitrary and insufficiently justified,” pointing to more recent findings from EPA’s own literature review that were ignored.
The court also firmly rejected legal challenges brought by oil refiners. Refiners had contested both the supplemental biofuel volume requirements for 2022 and 2023 and the broader methodology EPA used to set annual biofuel blending targets.
While the court did not overturn the 2023–2025 renewable fuel requirements, it ordered EPA to provide a new, updated assessment of the rule’s climate and endangered species impacts.
The court clarified that the Clean Air Act does not require EPA to conduct a strict cost-benefit analysis when setting renewable fuel volumes. The judges wrote, “Nothing in the [Clean Air] Act or precedent supports a freestanding requirement that EPA balance the quantifiable costs and benefits of the volumes it sets, let alone that EPA may implement the RFS Program only insofar as its benefits — quantified or not — outweigh its costs.”
This part of the ruling is a significant win for EPA and for supporters of the RFS program, as it preserves the agency’s ability to set ambitious biofuel blending targets without being forced to prove that the benefits always outweigh the costs in a quantifiable way. It also means that oil refiners remain responsible for meeting the EPA’s supplemental and annual biofuel mandates, despite their objections.
Going forward, EPA will need to revisit its climate impact analysis for crop-based biofuels, but its overall approach to setting annual and supplemental biofuel volumes has been upheld — reinforcing the agency’s central role in shaping U.S. renewable fuel policy.
SCOTUS declines to fast track challenge of Trump’s tariffs... The U.S. Supreme Court refused to expedite a high-profile challenge to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, turning down a request from two family-owned educational toy companies to put the case on an ultra-fast track. Instead, the justices left in place the standard 30-day timeline for the administration to respond, delaying any immediate Supreme Court intervention.
With the Supreme Court declining to fast-track the case, the administration now has 30 days to file its response. The Court has not signaled whether it will ultimately take up the case, but the stakes are enormous as the outcome could determine the scope of presidential power over trade and impact hundreds of billions of dollars in commerce, with some estimates projecting the tariffs could raise up to $600 billion annually for the federal government.
If the justices decide to hear the case, arguments could begin this fall. Until then, Trump’s tariffs remain in effect, and uncertainty continues to weigh on businesses and global markets.
SCOTUS opens door to legal challenges to California’s EV mandate... The Supreme Court via 7-2 majority found that fuel producers and allied states have legal standing to contest the EPA’s 2022 reinstatement of California’s Clean Air Act waiver. This waiver had permitted California — and 17 other states that followed its lead — to enforce stricter vehicle emissions limits and a progressive mandate for electric vehicle sales through 2035. The Court did not invalidate California’s rule, but it revived lawsuits that could ultimately suspend or overturn key parts of the state’s climate agenda.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing for the majority, stated: “The government generally may not target a business or industry through stringent and allegedly unlawful regulation, and then evade the resulting lawsuits by claiming that the targets of its regulation should be locked out of court as unaffected bystanders.”
The Supreme Court’s decision is part of a larger trend in which federal courts are scrutinizing regulatory agencies’ authority more closely. While California’s zero-emission vehicle targets remain intact for now, the next year will be crucial. If courts uphold the challenges or the Congressional repeal, key mid-decade EV targets could be delayed, and U.S. electrification momentum could slow.
For automakers, the only certainty is uncertainty. They are simultaneously pushing forward with ambitious electrification plans and bracing for potential policy reversals — an approach that seeks to balance market realities, political winds, and evolving consumer demand.
USDA, HHS promise new, streamlined dietary guidelines... A significant shift is on the horizon for the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. have promised a fresh approach for the 2025-2030 edition. While the final guidelines have not yet been released, both leaders assure the public they are coming soon — and will be markedly different from previous versions.
The Dietary Guidelines for Americans are updated every five years, with the last set issued for 2020-2025 spanning a hefty 164 pages. Rollins and Kennedy, however, have pledged to deliver a much shorter, clearer document — just four to five pages, written in plain English. Their stated goal is to make the guidelines “sound, simple, and clear,” ensuring that everyday Americans can easily understand and apply the recommendations.
Rollins emphasized the new guidelines will be “based on sound science, not political science,” signaling a departure from what she described as “leftist ideologies” influencing past policy. Kennedy echoed this sentiment, promising a “shake-up in a big way” and a focus on practical, actionable advice.
One of the most notable changes hinted at by Kennedy is a strong stance against ultra-processed foods. He has pledged to remove these items from the recommended menu, and the Department of Health and Human Services reportedly plans to launch a campaign to educate the public about the harms associated with ultra-processed foods.
The process has involved a careful, line-by-line review of the Scientific Report from the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, which was released by the previous administration in 2024. The public comment period closed on Feb. 10, and both Rollins and Kennedy have assured that the final guidelines will be released ahead of the Dec. 31, 2025, statutory deadline.
Of note: Historically, the public has largely ignored previous dietary guidelines, often due to their complexity and length. The new approach aims to reverse this trend by making the guidelines more accessible and relevant to everyday life.