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The La Niña weather pattern is expected to persist for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. That does not mean much for U.S. weather patterns, but it could limit precipitation over South America’s growing season, meteorologists say.
In a La Niña pattern, stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts have noted.
Meteorologists have forecast that the current weak La Nina could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier earlier this week. That hasn’t yet materialized, he noted, with crops, in fact, doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent. He noted, though, that less than half the soybeans have been planted.
Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he said. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.not materialize, then this estimate is probably too low.
The curse of the cover
Investor fears of a potential investment bubble around artificial intelligence probably won’t be soothed by Time magazine’s decision to pick the “architects of AI” as its “person of the year” this week. That’s because the magazine’s picks have a reputation as a contrarian indicator.
The late Paul MacRae Montgomery, a longtime technical analyst, has been credited with first discovering the inverse link between magazine covers and markets – a relationship that’s been the subject of study by market mavens ever since. The idea is that once a market phenomenon or investment trend attracts enough mainstream media attention to make a prominent magazine cover, it’s likely to soon run out of gas.
MacRae found Time’s Person of the Year (POY) selection to be a particularly good contrarian indicator, said James Bianco of Bianco Research in a LinkedIn post. “Not every POY has an investment implication, but when it does, it has been profitable to take a contrarian stance against the cover story,” Bianco wrote.
Note that the magazine as contrarian indicator applies only to magazines aimed at general audiences, rather than financial publications like Barron’s or Businessweek (though not necessarily the Economist). Observers have cautioned that the indicator works well when it comes to general trends rather than individual companies.