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While producers were aggressive sellers of soybeans last fall, they remained reluctant to move corn or wheat, leading to a buildup of inventory on the farm, CoBank said in a Thursday report.
Company ownership of soybeans in commercial storage jumped to 73.6% as of Nov. 30, up from 66.3% the year prior as farmers sold soybeans at a faster pace, the Colorado-based bank said, citing collateral monitoring reports of grain company customers as of Nov. 30, 2025. CoBank’s data set includes grain companies from around the U.S. that provide monthly borrowing base position reports. The surveys do not include farmers’ marketing positions for commodities stored on-farm.
The share of soybean bushels in commercial storage that were enrolled in delayed pricing programs and basis contracts also fell last fall as farmers priced soybeans during the market rally following the trade truce between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the report said.
Participation in delayed-pricing for soybeans was also down, partially as a result of market uncertainty ahead of the Oct. 30 trade truce, while elevators also limited DP programs due to the risk of owning unpriced bushels in a carry market, the report said. In a DP program, the farmer transfers title to the elevator with the option for the farmer to set futures and basis at a later date while paying the elevator a monthly service fee.
Farmers were less eager to price corn and wheat last fall. Company ownership of corn in commercial storage as of Nov. 30 dropped to 73%, down from 77% a year earlier. Wheat fell to 72% from 75%. Farmers increased use of both DP and basis contracts for corn and wheat as they left prices open in hopes of future recoveries in price. That lack of farmer selling supported cash basis for both crops in some regions, the report said, though the increase in bushels waiting to be priced signals more selling pressure lies ahead, CoBank said.
In line with USDA’s Grain Stocks report, which showed a record number of bushels stored off-farm, CoBank customers also reported large increases in total bushels. The USDA data showed a larger share of soybeans and wheat were stored off farm relative to 2024, implying farmers made more room on-farm to store a record corn crop.
Total U.S. corn stocks on Dec. 1 were record-high at 13.3 billion bushels, up 10% year over year (YOY). The share of the crop stored off-farm on Dec. 1 fell to 34.5%, down from 37% the year before. Off-farm corn stocks were 4.58 million bushels, up 3.9% YoY and the highest in seven years while on-farm storage increased 13.5% YoY to 8.699 billion bushels.
CoBank noted U.S. soybean stocks on Dec. 1 also rose to 3.29 billion bushels, up 6.1% YoY and the highest in seven years with off-farm stocks tallied at 1.71 billion bushels, up 9.9% YoY and the highest in six years. The share of the soybean crop in off-farm storage climbed to 52.1%, up from 50.3% in 2024 to hit a five-year high. Total U.S. wheat stocks on Dec. 1 were tallied at 1.675 billion bushels, up 6.5% YoY and the highest in six years with 73.4% of the crop stored off farm, up from 70.3% last year and the highest in four years.
“The increase in on-farm storage for corn in particular implies there is more corn in the countryside also waiting to be priced, pressuring both flat price and basis,” CoBank said.
Ukraine wheat faces deep freeze: Extremely low temperatures, falling as low as 30 degrees Celsius, or minus-22 degrees Fahrenheit, are expected to hit Ukraine early next week, posing a danger to winter crops, Reuters reported, citing analysts and the country’s national emergency service. A sharp drop in temperature is set for Feb. 1, affecting all regions except southern Ukraine, with the frosts to ease slightly only on Feb. 4, the service said on the Telegram messenger. “We consider the current cold spell to be extremely dangerous for winter crops across a significant part of Ukraine,” analyst Barva Invest said on Telegram.
Refiners push back: President Donald Trump gave the quest for year-round sales of E15 gasoline – a blend of 15% ethanol – a push this week, but Politico noted in a Thursday report that getting over the final hurdles on Capitol Hill will involve oil refiners that have been at odds with ethanol supporters. The Fueling Jobs Coalition, representing independent oil refiners, reiterated Wednesday that any legislation on E15 must also address ethanol mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard. “Congress must pursue real RFS reform in any legislative proceedings looking to advance year-round E15,” the group said in a statement, the report said, adding that it “could support a legislative package containing year-round E15” if there are reassurances it would cut and contain costs and “not be used as a tool to continue raising already astronomical RFS compliance expenses.”
SAF volatility a major challenge: Sharp price swings in sustainable aviation fuel prices underscore the limits on the current production outlook and raise worries about the sector’s ability to meet increased mandates, Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, said in a report. The volatility in SAF prices is amplified by the small size of the market and a thin pool of suppliers, renewing concerns that today’s dominant HEFA pathway will struggle to scale as mandates rise, an official at sustainable fuels developer Aether Fuels told Platts “The capacity is limited and the number of sellers is limited, and so in those conditions, it also further magnifies the effect of hedging strategies,” Aether’s CEO Conor Madigan said. Many airlines decided to delay purchases, assuming prices might decline or wanting to postpone balance sheet impacts, he said.
- SAF is seen as the third major wave of biofuel demand, following the ethanol boom of the 2000s and the recent expansion of renewable diesel.
Gold briefly tops $5,500 an ounce: Continuous futures hit an all-time high above $5,500 an ounce on Thursday, having topped the $5,000 level just earlier this week. A parabolic rally for gold and silver, which trades above $100 an ounce, has captivated investors to kick off 2026. But the extreme gains also have traders bracing for downside volatility.
- “Do not be afraid if we see a near-term correction in both gold and silver,” said markets economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, in a note. “The bullish story has not changed, but the price action — parabolic for the former and asymptomatic for the latter — has been far too excessive of late,” he wrote.
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