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Wheat producers: Extend 2025-crop sales, make initial 2026-crop sales... Wheat futures extended to their highest levels in two months. While the technical breakout could trigger more near-term gains, price strength in the face of winter wheat harvest must be viewed as a selling opportunity. We advise all wheat producers to sell another 10% of 2025-crop to get to 30% sold in the cash market. We also advise selling an initial 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year.
No Pro Farmer reports on Thursday... Markets and government offices are closed Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer updates. Grain markets reopen with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Thursday, June 19. Livestock markets resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CT, on Friday, June 20.
Fed continues wait-and-see approach, sees two cuts in second half of this year... The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% following its two-day monetary policy meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers continued to signal two quarter-point rate cuts during the second half of the year, but the new economic projections now call for single cuts in each 2026 and 2027.
Economic growth is now projected to slow to 1.4% this year, with unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation being at 3% at year-end. That’s a slightly stagflationary picture compared to previous projections for economic growth of 1.7% and unemployment of 4.4%. Under the new projections, inflation remains elevated at 2.4% through 2026 before falling to 2.1% in 2027.
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed will maintain a “wait-and-see” approach, carefully monitoring incoming economic data before making any further adjustments to rates. He reiterated that while the Fed still expects to cut rates later this year, the pace and timing of those cuts will be more gradual than previously projected, largely due to persistent inflation pressures and new tariff policies. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add to its watch list for economic impacts.
Powell addressed recent public criticism from President Trump, who called for aggressive rate cuts and labeled Powell “stupid” for not acting more quickly. He reaffirmed the Fed’s independence, stating that monetary policy decisions are based on economic data and the central bank’s dual mandate, not on political considerations.
Biofuels victory: SCOTUS ruling consolidates SRE challenges to one venue... The U.S. Supreme Court consolidated legal challenges to small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) should be held at a single venue — the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. The decision is seen as a victory for the biofuel industry and rural farm communities. The Court found that while EPA’s denials of SRE petitions are locally or regionally applicable, they are “based on a determination of nationwide scope or effect,” thus requiring venue in the D.C. Circuit. Previously, SRE challenges were filed in multiple regional circuits, leading to inconsistent rulings and legal uncertainty for both refiners and biofuels producers.
The Supreme Court’s decision to centralize SRE litigation in the D.C. Circuit is a major victory for the biofuels sector, providing legal clarity and reducing the risk of inconsistent rulings. However, the future of the biofuels market remains uncertain as EPA continues to review a significant backlog of SRE petitions and prepares to implement new blending mandates for 2026 and 2027.
USDA’s aggressive strategy to halt northward advance of screwworms... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a major escalation in the fight against the New World Screwworm (NWS), launching an $8.5 million sterile fly dispersal facility in southern Texas and unveiling a sweeping five-part plan to boost surveillance, response and eradication efforts at the border and beyond. Click here for details.
Placements the focal point in Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report... Analysts polled by Reuters expect USDA to show the June 1 feedlot inventory down 1.1% from year-ago at 11.456 million head in Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report. Given the ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports and talk of more heifers being retained for breeding, the placements figure will draw a lot of attention, with the average estimate indicating a 5.9% decline though there’s a 10-point spread between the range of expectations. May marketings declined sharply as packers slowed slaughter runs amid deeply negative margins, with the average estimate indicating a 9.3% reduction.
| Cattle on Feed | Avg. Trade Estimate (% of year-ago) | Range(% of year-ago) | Million head |
| On Feed on June 1 | 98.9 | 98.1 – 100.0 | 11.456 |
| Placements in May | 94.1 | 88.0 – 98.0 | 1.925 |
| Marketings in May | 90.7 | 89.3 – 95.0 | 1.773 |
Brazil’s Port of Santos achieves record-breaking cargo throughput in May... Brazil’s Port of Santos reached a historic milestone in May, handling 16.6 MMT of cargo — the highest monthly throughput in its history and a 5.1% increase over May 2024.
Solid bulk cargo was a major contributor, rising 5.3% year-on-year, fueled by robust growth in soybean exports (+12.6%) and soybean meal (+6.9%). Containerized general cargo hit a record 477,000 TEUs for May (+7.5%), with year-to-date container volumes also at historic highs: 2.29 million TEUs (+6%). Liquid bulk throughput rose 2.3% to 1.6 MMT, with fuel oil exports (+51.3%) and citrus juice (+11.8%) among the standouts.
Other notable gains included higher imports of sulfur (+29.9%), caustic soda (+65.3%) and wheat (+12.8%). Vessel traffic increased to 495 ship calls (+4.9% year-on-year), reflecting the port’s heightened activity.
From January to May, Santos accounted for 29.8% of Brazil’s total trade flow, up from 29.3% a year earlier. China remained the top trading partner, responsible for 29.3% of foreign trade via the port.
Despite the strong overall performance, certain segments faced declines due to seasonal and market factors, with sugar exports down 7.2% and coffee shipments falling 21.4%.
Iowa grocery shoppers cite high food costs and regulation worries, but strongly trust local farmers... High food costs remain the top concern for Iowa grocery shoppers, according to the new Iowa Farm Bureau Food & Farm Index. The annual Harris Poll survey reveals price is the most important factor for Iowans when buying meat, poultry and dairy — mirroring last year’s results and reflecting the 23.6% jump in grocery prices since 2020 (USDA CPI data).
Key findings:
- Cost concerns dominate: 80% of Iowa grocery shoppers worry about government regulations that could increase food costs, with nearly half (47%) “very concerned” — more than double the rate in 2021 (21%).
- Support for farming flexibility: 86% believe it’s important for farmers to have flexibility in production practices to keep choices and prices diverse at the store.
- Strong trust in farmers: Trust in Iowa farmers remains exceptionally high:
o 91% of shoppers trust local farmers
o 49% say they place a “great deal” of trust in them
o 82% are confident farmers care for animals responsibly
o 78% say the same about environmental stewardship
Iowa Farm Bureau President Brent Johnson said, “Flexibility in farming is crucial so farmers can provide consumers with a variety of options to fit their individual family needs. Iowans are definitely paying attention to food prices, but they’re also looking for food that makes them feel connected to local farmers.”