Advice Alert: Cotton producers: Initiate 2025-crop sales…Nearby cotton futures pushed above our 65-cent target. We advise cotton producers to sell 15 % of expected production, initiating 2025 crop sales. Given the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi, we will evaluate our target after the dust settles, but have a preliminary target of 70 cents.
Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday afternoon, but Chair Jerome Powell surprised market participants by signaling that another cut in December isn’t a sure thing.
“A further reduction in the policy rate in December is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” Powell told reporters in a news conference following the two-day meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
See: What another Fed rate cut means for ag commodities
Expectations for another quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025 in December dropped, with fed-funds futures traders pricing in a 55% chance of such a move after Powell’s remarks, down from more than 90% on Tuesday.
Powell indicated the rate-setting committee was divided over prospects for a December move, with the decision clouded by a factor that should be familiar to ag commodity traders – a lack of data due to the continued government shutdown. Wednesday’s decision produced a rare two-way dissent, with Fed Gov. Stephen Miran again calling for a supersize half-point cut while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voting in favor of leaving rates unchanged.
Stock indexes pulled back after Powell’s remarks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending slightly lower and the S&P 500 finishing with a fractional decline, though the the Nasdaq Composite scored a record finish. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped. A stronger dollar will be watched to see if it dampens buying interest for commodities.
Mondelez says economic worries are showing up in Americans’ food habits
Is economic uncertainty beginning to affect the habits of grocery shoppers?
Mondelez International on Tuesday said its biscuit business suffered in recent months as consumers snarfed fewer snacks due to concerns over inflation and the economy, the Wall Street Journal reported.
“That is driven obviously by a consumer that is very concerned in general about the economy and frustrated with the pricing they’re seeing,” said Chief Executive Dirk Van de Put. Mondelez’s product lineup includes Oreos, Chips Ahoy and Triscuits.
The CEO said consumers are increasingly looking for value, with some turning to discount retailers and club stores, while higher-income consumers have leaned toward premium and better-for-you products, the report said.
Notable closes…
To say China’s soybean purchases were long awaited would be a massive understatement, but the news that Beijing had secured two or three cargoes ahead of the closely watched meeting of President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea didn’t offer a lift to soybean futures. Instead, the price action resembled more of a classic “sell the fact” reaction, with January ending ¾ of a cent lower after a run-up that took the contract to a 12-month high on Tuesday. Traders will be watching for more details on the scope of potential purchases following the meeting.
Don’t miss: What could China returning to the U.S. market look like for soybeans?