Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
High phosphate prices and Mosaic’s big miss… According to fertilizer maker Mosaic Co, Phosphate deliveries to the U.S. are “tracking well below last year,” with levies applicable to most sources of the fertilizer, the company said in its earnings release. Demand elsewhere in the world is absorbing some of the volumes no longer bound for the U.S., Mosaic said. The company posted an $8 million loss in its phosphate earnings in the second quarter.
In this Editor’s opinion, knowing that farmers will cut expenses on P&K first, and understanding that phosphates have been overpriced compared to the rest of the fertilizer segment for a very long time, the fact that Mosaic Co. missed its target may be an indication that farmers are adjusting application rates on phosphate.
With analysts predicting enormous corn yields this fall, after at least two seasons of declining phosphate applications, the price pinch will either further tighten the production budget for farmers, or begin to weigh on corn yields and soil nutrition as early as next year.
Purdue finds farmers believe we are headed in the right direction… The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined in July as farmer sentiment continued to weaken. The report’s authors wrote, “The July Current Conditions Index fell 17 points while the Future Expectations Index declined 7 points, both compared to a month earlier. Weaker income prospects in 2025 were largely responsible for farmers’ weaker appraisal of current conditions.”
Still, nearly three-fourths of survey respondents reported they believe U.S. policy is headed in the right direction.
According to the report, “Despite a weaker crop income outlook, just 11% of crop producers said they expect farmland cash rental rates to decline, with a majority reporting that they expect rental rates to stay about the same. Helping to support producers’ farmland value and rental rate outlook is farmers’ expectation for a stronger farm income safety net, with nearly one-third (31%) of U.S. producers saying they expect the 2025 Farm Bill to provide a stronger safety net than the previous Farm Bill.”
Big, Beautiful, but not a Farm Bill… Important components of a typical farm bill were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. However, Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman of Arkansas said, “reconciliation is about taxing and spending. There are a lot of things that are just pure policy decisions that need to be made.” Noting major economic shifts since the 2018 Farm Bill was codified, Boozman expressed hopes an updated Farm Bill can be passed by the end of the year.
Rollins, Kennedy not so sweet on sugary snacks… U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, joined by Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., hosted Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey and signed six new food choice state waivers to further advance President Trump’s efforts to Make America Healthy Again. The signed waivers will amend the statutory definition of food for purchase for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs (SNAP) in West Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas, each commencing in 2026.
“It is incredible to see so many states take action at this critical moment in our nation’s history and do something to begin to address chronic health problems. President Trump has changed the status quo, and the entire cabinet is taking action to Make America Healthy Again. At USDA, we play a key role in supporting Americans who fall on hard times, and that commitment does not change. Rather, these state waivers promote healthier options for families in need,” said Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins.
“For years, SNAP has used taxpayer dollars to fund soda and candy--products that fuel America’s diabetes and chronic disease epidemics,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Kennedy. “These waivers help put real food back at the center of the program and empower states to lead the charge in protecting public health. I thank the governors who have stepped up to request waivers, and I encourage others to follow their lead. This is how we Make America Healthy Again.” -source: USDA news release
Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley chided USDA for not consulting with lawmakers in advance on its reorganization plans. Grassley says USDA’s failure to consult with senators first prompted Senate Ag Chair John Boozman to call a recent hearing with Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden noting it was only then that senators got a commitment to consult with them on the reorganization plan. Grassley lamented, “It’s just completely distressing and harmful to working with the Department of Agriculture.”
Had USDA come to senators first, Grassley says they could have had more input on choosing hub cities to relocate staff, asking why Des Moines was not considered.
NCGA requests head count… The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) released numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture today showing there are 526,263 farmers in the U.S. growing corn.
NCGA has long said it represents the interest of over 300,000 corn growers. But that number, published by USDA, is the number of farms in the country, not the number of farmers making the decisions on the farm.
“This new finding is exciting,” said NCGA Economist Krista Swanson. “It shows the broader swath of farming individuals our association represents and gives us new insight for future economic analysis.”
USDA released the numbers to NCGA in response to a special data tabulation request.
The closes according to AgriTalk…
Today’s slide in the value of the U-S dollar likely helped support HRW futures.
- December HRW wheat futures were 6 3/4 cents higher at $5.32
- December SRW wheat up three-quarters of a cent to $5.29 ¼
December corn futures opened steady and dropped through psychological support at 4 bucks to post a new contract low. Prices then recovered to close just slightly below the opening range – but that was still the lowest close for the contract.
- September corn futures were 1 3/4 cents lower at $3.79 3/4
- December corn down three-quarters of a cent to 4.01 ¼
Spreaders were active in the soy complex again today with soybean meal prices lower and bean oil prices mixed. Soybeans followed bean meal to the downside.
- September beans were 6 cents lower at $9.65 1/2
- November beans down 6 1/4 to $9.84 ½
Boxed beef prices were 4-dollars-plus higher again this morning – Choice gained $4.04 and Select beef jumped $4.87. Early action in the cash cattle market is pointing the market higher this week.
- August live cattle were $2.02 ½ higher at $236.30
- August feeders up $3.97 ½ to $345.02 ½
August hogs gapped higher and tried to extend gains but slipped back to fill the gap and to close just slightly higher.
· August hogs were a dime higher at $108.87 ½