Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.31 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw routine profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators. Solid losses in soybeans also spilled over into some selling interest in corn but steady to firmer winter wheat futures prices tempered losses in corn today. The U.S. dollar index today hit a 5.5-month high, which was a daily bearish outside-market element for the grain markets.
A Reuters poll indicates analysts estimate the U.S. corn harvest to be 83% complete, on average, as of Sunday. Meantime, Stonex raised its U.S. corn yield estimate to 186.0 bu. per acre this week, up from 185.9 bu. per acre and forecasts total production at 16.748 billion bu.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 140 MMT, with planting nearly complete in Southern Brazil, while dry conditions have limited plantings in northern states. Cordonnier left his Argentine corn estimate unchanged at 54 MMT and has a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation in the Midwest during the next 10 days will be infrequent and often light in most areas, allowing fieldwork to advance well around two rounds of precipitation occurring Thursday into Sunday and favoring northern and eastern areas before a storm system of low confidence occurs Nov. 14-17, slowing fieldwork in many areas. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal most often through Friday before Saturday is cooler and Sunday into next Tuesday is colder than usual.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.18. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.34 1/2 and then at the October high of $4.37. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 12 3/4 cents to $11.21 1/2, nearer the session low. December soybean meal fell $3.40 to $317.40, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil fell 31 points to 49.53 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: January soybeans today saw a normal “Turnaround Tuesday” corrective pullback from recent solid gains, with profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders featured. January beans and December meal had become highly oversold, technically, and were due for corrective pullbacks.
USDA Secretary Rollins today posted on X: “Today, Bangladesh’s top three soy crushing companies agreed to purchase $1 billion of U.S. soybeans over the next year. That’s 3 times more U.S. soybeans than Bangladesh purchased in 2024!”
A Reuters poll said analysts expect the U.S. soybean harvest to be 91% completed as of Sunday. Meantime, Stonex lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.6 bu. per acre, down from its Oct. 1 estimate of 53.9 bu. per acre, with production forecasted at 4.303 billion bu., down from 4.236 billion previously.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 177 MMT but did change his bias from neutral- to higher to just neutral. Dryness in east-central Brazil continues to cause delays in soybean plantings and a widespread storm damage in Parana over the weekend has stirred increasing cautiousness. Cordonnier left his soybean estimate unchanged at 49 MMT and holds a neutral bias.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. There is need for greater rain in portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil and some of that need will be fulfilled in the next couple of weeks.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $10.70 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.35 3/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.12 1/2 and then at $11.00.
December soybean meal bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A steep price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $304.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.30 and then at this week’s high of $325.20. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at $312.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.10 cents and then at last week’s high of 50.94 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 48.27 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 6 3/4 cents to $5.50 1/4, near the daily high and hit another three-month high. December HRW gained 4 3/4 cents to $5.36 1/2, near the daily high and hit a 2.5-month high. December spring wheat futures fell 1 1/4 cents to $5.57 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat market bulls had a very good day today, given the selling pressure in the corn and soybean futures markets. A rise in the U.S. dollar index to a near six-month high today did somewhat limit buying interest in the wheat markets.
A Reuters poll shows analysts estimate U.S. winter wheat plantings to be 91% complete as of Sunday. Analysts estimated the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 52% “good” to “excellent,” on average.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since July had reached 8.03 MMT by Nov. 2, compared to 8.32 MMT a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission earlier today.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the western high Plains and in northern portions of the Midwest production region. Moisture is also needed in the Pacific Northwest, although none of this is of much concern. Canada’s eastern Prairies are plenty wet and need some drier weather. A boost in precipitation and soil moisture is needed in the central and southwestern Prairies to improve winter crop development potential in the spring. Neighboring areas of Montana might also benefit from some additional moisture.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as fledgling price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at this week’s low of $5.31 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at this week’s low of $5.18 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 48 points to 65.20 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw a corrective pullback from Monday’s gains as trading has turned choppy again. More chart consolidation was featured today. Lower corn and soybean prices and a rise in the U.S. dollar index today to a 5.5-month high were also bearish daily outside-market elements for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest conditions have been mostly good in southern Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and across Texas. Fieldwork has been a little slow recently in parts of the Delta and the remaining southeastern states, but restricted precipitation in the next 10 days will be good for ongoing fieldwork.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 66.10 cents and then at 66.50 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 64.54 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.