Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.24, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild short covering in quieter dealings today. A lower U.S. dollar index today also aided the corn bulls, as did rallies in the winter wheat futures markets.
U.S. House of Representatives Republicans are setting up a rural energy council to study E15 and negotiate acceptable language.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next 7-8 days will raise some concern for corn and other crops because some of those areas are already drying down. Timely rain is advertised after this period; though confidence is not high and the situation will need to be closely monitored. Good crop weather will prevail elsewhere.
Friday’s weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Jan. 15 (delayed one day by the federal holiday Monday) is expected to show weekly U.S. corn sales of 1.9 million to 3.1 million MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT for the 2026-27 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.35. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.27 3/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at $4.20 and then at last week’s low of $4.17 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 1/2 of a cent to $10.64, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week high early on. March soybean meal rose $4.80 to $296.20, nearer the daily high. March soybean oil lost 23 points to 53.78 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a four-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets saw some corrective selling pressure today, while the meal market saw decent buying interest that was mostly short covering by the speculators. Spreaders were featured unwinding short soybean meal, long bean oil spreads today. Such may continue on Friday. The meal futures market will have to continue to perform better in order for the bean bulls to gain any significant upside traction. A lower U.S. dollar index today limited selling interest in the soy complex futures.
USDA today reported daily sales of 192,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2025-26.
Brazil soy crushers group, Abiove, predicts the 2025-26 soybean crop will total 177.12 MMT, up from 171.48 in the previous year. Meanwhile, the group forecasts a record soy crush of 61 MMT in 2026.
Friday’s weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Jan. 15 (delayed one day by the federal holiday Monday) is expected to show weekly U.S. soybean sales of 1.5 million to 3.0 million MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, and sales of zero to 200,000 MT for the 2026-27 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil rain through early next week will be focused on northern regions, where the remaining drier areas in Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is slowed across the region. Little rain will fall from Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo southward into Paraguay and southern Brazil and fieldwork should advance swiftly. By early next week a larger part of the region will be short of soil moisture and in need of rain to improve conditions for developing crops. Shower activity will expand Tuesday into Friday of next week and some relief from dryness will occur, especially from Mato Grosso do Sul into Sao Paulo, while rain may be too light in far southern Brazil to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. In Argentina, most of the driest areas in southern regions will see little rain today and stress to crops should increase in many areas while losses of soil moisture elsewhere in southern as well as central Argentina leave many areas in need of rain to prevent quick increases in crop stress. Additional rain is expected in western Argentina Monday into next Thursday with another round of rain Jan. 30-Feb. 1 that should favor western and northern areas. Much of western and northern Argentina will be left with favorable soil moisture by early February while southeastern into parts of central and east-central Argentina are not likely to receive enough rain to prevent significant drying of the soil and rising levels of crop stress. Warm to hot temperatures this weekend into early next week in western and central Argentina will cause rapid increases in crop stress in the drier areas, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and the bulls have gained some momentum. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $10.82 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.72 1/2 and then at $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.52 and then at last week’s low of $10.37 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $297.60 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $291.40 and then at last week’s low of $288.40.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 54.31 cents and then at 55.00 cents. First support is seen at 53.00 cents and then at today’s low of 52.37 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 7 3/4 cents to $5.15 1/2 and near the session high. March HRW gained 6 cents to $5.25 3/4 and nearer the daily high. March spring wheat futures rose 10 cents to $5.73 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain buying. A lower U.S. dollar index today also aided the wheat bulls. Buying interest was also spurred by concerns about winterkill in the U.S. and Asia/Europe due to extreme cold expected in those regions in the coming days.
Sovecon noted earlier today it could lower Russia’s wheat crop forecast for this year from the current 83.8 MMT if the current cold spell across the country persists for a week or longer.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a storm system is about to merge with an approaching arctic air mass and cause widespread snow in the region Friday into Sunday. Before the snow begins though, subzero morning temperatures in Nebraska and the most northern counties in Kansas Friday could cause some winterkill. This area has no snow on the ground and won’t get snow on the ground until mainly after Friday morning. The snow and significant cold air Friday into Sunday will cause travel delays and high levels of livestock stress. The snowstorm will be most-significant in central and northern Oklahoma where travel will likely be most-delayed. Sleet will occur too in southern Oklahoma. In the Northern Plains, significantly cold temperatures will occur in the next seven days as a large, strong arctic air mass impacts the region. New snowfall will be limited, but not absent. Some central and southwestern areas are still snow-free or have just a very thin dusting of snow on the ground, so, there remains a potential for winterkill, though, this may not be a big issue. Warmer weather will occur in the second week of the outlook.
Friday’s weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Jan. 15 (delayed one day by the federal holiday Monday) is expected to show weekly U.S. wheat sales of 150,000 to 450,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. This is likely “basing” action that will put in a market bottom at some point and likely sooner rather than later. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.21 and then at last week’s high of $5.28. First support is seen at this week and last week’s low of $5.07 and then at the contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.31 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.16 and then at $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 42 points to 63.88 cents, near the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw technical selling pressure today as prices are starting to trend down again on the daily bar chart. The bears have momentum on their side. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace and a lower U.S. dollar index today failed to help out the cotton futures bulls.
Traders will get the weekly USDA export sales report on Friday—delayed one day by the federal holiday on Monday.
World Weather Inc. today said most cotton areas from southeastern Arizona through West Texas, the Texas Black Lands and upper Texas coast to the Delta and portions of the southeastern states will be impacted by the Friday through Sunday storm system. The precipitation will improve topsoil moisture for possible use in the spring. However, much more moisture will be needed. South Texas will get little to no moisture leaving the soil quite dry. South Texas plants cotton first, usually in early March, leaving more than a month of time for improved soil moisture. Precipitation that falls from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama will be welcome, but drought conditions will prevail and more moisture will be needed later this spring.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the December low of 62.97 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at 63.68 cents and then at 62.97 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.