Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 3/4 of a cent to $4.30 3/4, near mid-range and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a pause today after decent gains Wednesday. Selling in corn was limited by a surge in crude oil futures prices to a six-month high.
U.S. corn export sales for the week ended Jan. 22 were 1.649 million MT, in the middle of a range of expectations from 1 million to 2.5 million MT.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next week will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Some welcome showers are advertised for western and interior southern Brazil later this week into next week easing dryness there. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices trending up on the daily bar chart. Recent price action also suggests a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.34 and then at $4.37. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.22 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.72 1/4, nearer the session low after hitting a six-week high early on. March soybean meal lost $1.80 to $296.00, near the daily low. March soybean oil fell 28 points to 54.03 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw mild downside price corrections today after soybeans and bean oil hit multi-week highs overnight and Wednesday, respectively. Soybean bulls are becoming more confident as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export sales totaled 819,000 MT in the week ended Jan. 22, versus expectations for a figure between 400,000 to 1.8 million MT.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks and the driest areas from Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo as well as western into central Bahia will benefit from the rain while fieldwork is slowed at times. Exceptions will occur in Rio Grande do Sul and southern Paraguay where rain into Feb. 8 will be infrequent and light, leading to additional drying, favorable conditions for fieldwork, and increasing crop stress that will expand from southern areas, where soil moisture is already short, into some central and northern areas. Eastern Bahia will also dry down, but enough rain should fall there to prevent serious drying from taking place. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 9-11 in far southern Brazil where enough rain may fall to ease stress to crops and induce increases in soil moisture with confidence low for this event. Argentina will see little rain into Monday and stress to crops will increase in the drier central and southern parts of the country as soil moisture declines and temperatures are warm to hot, while west-central and northwestern Argentina benefit from rain. Topsoil moisture is short in much of Argentina while subsoil moisture is marginal to short from central Santa Fe to central and eastern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios where stress to crops will steadily increase until rain returns.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending up on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $10.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.85 1/2 and then at $11.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $10.67 and then at this week’s low of $10.58 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $300.70 and then at this week’s high of $302.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $292.70 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 54.95 cents and then at 55.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 53.35 cents and then at 53.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 5 1/2 cents to $5.41 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a seven-week high. March HRW rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.47, nearer the daily high and hit a nine-week high. March spring wheat futures rose 7 1/2 cents to $5.81 1/2, at the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw follow-through buying strength from Wednesday’s good gains. The bulls have gained technical momentum to suggest the chart-based speculators may be more willing to play the long side in winter wheat futures in the near term.
USDA this morning said U.S. wheat export sales in the week ended Jan. 22 were 558,000 MT, versus forecasts for 275,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, temperatures will become threateningly cold again in the eastern 70-75% of the region Saturday morning. However, most of this area should have at least some protective snow cover. There may be some exposed areas in Nebraska to subzero temperatures again. Temperatures next week are expected to warm significantly as snow cover fades and influence from a high-pressure ridge in the western U.S. increases. Unusually cold air could start to return after Feb. 8 or Feb. 9. In the Northern Plains, a reinforcing surge of arctic air will continue to impact the region today into Saturday before unusual warmth finally returns. Precipitation in the next seven days will be limited, but not absent. An above normal temperature bias will occur from Sunday into Feb. 6 before a colder weather pattern evolves again.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.44 1/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $5.23 and then at this week’s low of $5.19 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.49 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $5.31 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.25 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 25 points to 63.48 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw mild technical selling today as the technical posture remains firmly bearish. Strong gains in crude oil prices, which hit a six-month high today, did little to help out the cotton market bulls.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales totaling 203,700 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 51 percent from the previous week and down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Pakistan (52,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Vietnam (45,600 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan, 100 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 100 RB) and China (38,800 RB). Net sales of 15,000 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Nicaragua (6,600 RB), El Salvador (5,800 RB) and Guatemala (5,600 RB). Exports of 257,000 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 37 percent from the previous week and up 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (114,400 RB), Turkey (37,600 RB), Pakistan (18,300 RB) and Mexico (13,700 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said Texas needs rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that will result from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region will be less than usual this spring. Dryness is also expected in the southeastern U.S. this spring and especially during the summer. Spring rain will be timely, though lighter than usual at times. Meantime, excessive heat and dryness in Australia is stressing cotton there, especially in dryland production areas. Smaller boll sized and a slightly reduced boll count is anticipated because of dryness in western unirrigated production areas this year. Irrigated cotton and dryland crops in eastern Queensland are likely in the best shape and will probably yield well. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.40 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.04 cents and then at the contract low of 62.55 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.