Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.16 1/4, near the session low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: “Rain makes grain” is the bearish mantra pervading the corn futures market at present. World Weather Inc. today said excessive heat moving across the U.S. Midwest “will induce accelerated drying and raise crop stress in a few of the driest areas. South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin have been driest recently and the region will receive significant rain this week, improving crop and field conditions.” Warm temperatures in other parts of the Midwest have been helpful in improving degree accumulations and timely rain will be needed in early July to maintain the best possible crop conditions, said World Weather.
This week’s big drop in the crude oil futures market—so far down over $13 from the overnight spike high Monday—is a bearish outside-market element for corn, which also more than offset the bullish aspect of a lower U.S. dollar index so far this week, and much better risk appetite in the general marketplace on Tuesday.
USDA Tuesday reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 630,000 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 554,400 MT is for delivery during 2025-26 and 75,600 MT during 2026-27.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 70% “good” to “excellent” as of June 22, down two percentage points from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating stood at 6%. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 550-point scale, with 500 representing perfect) the corn crop declined 1.0 point to 377.9.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.46 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.22 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $4.30 3/4. First support is seen at $4.15 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 12 cents to $10.46 ¾, just shy of the session low, while November futures fell 9 3/4 cents to $10.37. July meal fell $1.90 to $280.50, another contract low-close, while July soyoil dove 107 points to 52.17 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans extended Monday’s losses amid diving crude oil futures and as broad uncertainty continued to hover over commodities. However, technical support curbed a more earnest decline amid a pullback from near-term technically overbought territory. Grains and soybeans are likely to remain subdued amid still some geopolitical volatility and lacking trade deals, with the July 9 deadline quickly approaching.
Members of the House Ways and Means Committee will hold a closed-door roundtable with Japanese Ambassador Shigeo Yamada on Thursday, as trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan remain deadlocked. The discussions led by the panel’s Trade Subcommittee, come at a tense moment, with Japan urgently seeking relief from a 25% tariff on car exports and a suspended 24% reciprocal tariff on other imports–both set to expire July 9, unless a deal is reached.
Meanwhile, the European Union plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports if President Trump puts a baseline levy on the bloc’s goods, according to Bloomberg. The EU’s industry Chief noted, “we will need to retaliate and rebalance in some key sectors if the U.S. insists on an asymmetrical deal, including if the outcome of the negotiations is that a 10% tariff remains.”
Following Monday’s close, USDA reported the soybean crop was 66% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from a week ago, while 7% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop declined 1.2 points to 362.7, which is 0.3 points behind a year ago.
Technical analysis: July soybean futures ended the session below the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $10.56 1/4 to $10.46 3/4 in a retreat amid technically overbought conditions. Initial support will now serve at $10.45, then at $10.34 1/4 and $10.00. Meanwhile, resistance will now serve at today’s failed support levels, then at $10.62 3/4, $10.80 1/2 and $10.87 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW futures plunged cents to 17 cents $5.35 3/4, while September HRW futures skid 15 /4 cents to $5.34 3/4. July HRS futures fell 1 3/4 cent to $6.25.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures led the downside today, undergoing sharp selling pressure for the third consecutive session. Prices fell in spite of recent weather weighing on crop conditions over the course of the last week. USDA estimated 54% of the spring wheat crop was in “good” to “excellent” shape, down three percentage points from last week, and 15% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop dropped 6.0 points to 354.3. Winter wheat conditions fell three points to 49% “good” to “excellent.” A decline of three points this late in the season was rather surprising, a testament to the effect of recent rains on the crop, leading to crop quality concerns. There are reports of producers getting docked for wheat in Kansas for “feed grade” wheat. So far, this does not seem to be a widespread issue, but harvest continues to go on rather slowly. USDA reported winter wheat harvest was 19% harvested, nine points behind average.
Weather in the northern Plains is nearly ideal for spring wheat crops over the next few weeks. There is an expected healthy mix of rain and sunshine, with temperatures gradually increasing over the course of this week, says World Weather Inc. The crop in eastern Montana could use some additional precip, though.
Technical analysis: September SRW futures saw sharp selling pressure today and ended the day on session lows. The recent uptrend is still intact, but a break much lower would shift the technical advantage to the bears. Support lies at the psychological $5.50 mark, which is reinforced by support at $5.42. Resistance stands at $5.57 3/4, the 40-day moving average, then $5.70 1/4 on a bounce.
September HRW futures continue to track SRW futures tightly. Bulls maintain a slight technical advantage. A break much lower eyes support at $5.39 1/2, which is reinforced by support at $5.32. Resistance stands at $5.56 3/4 then the 100-day moving average at $5.72 3/4 on resurgent strength.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 205 points to 66.01 cents, the highest close since June 3. December cotton gained 38 points to 67.79 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby July cotton surged in solid “turnaround Tuesday” fashion, with support from a weaker U.S. dollar and notable strength in equities. Today was first-notice day for July cotton. News that Iran and Israel reached a ceasefire have put risk appetite back into the marketplace, though China’s injection of liquidity into its financial markets was also supportive for the natural fiber. However, Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell is expected to speak to a House panel on U.S. monetary policy today, which may invite quick profit-taking.
USDA reported cotton plantings had advanced to 92% complete as of June 22, up seven points on the week but three points behind the five-year average. Efforts in Mississippi continue to lag by a 20-point margin compared to average, followed by Tennessee and Oklahoma.
World Weather Inc. reports western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see isolated to scattered and mostly light showers through Saturday before showers and thunderstorms bring rain to nearly all of the region Sunday through Thursday. Meanwhile isolated scattered showers will occur most days through Monday in parts of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend and South Texas where few areas will see enough rain to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: July cotton ended the session above the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from 65.38 cents to 66.02 cents. Initial resistance will now serve at the April 25 high of 69.75 cents, while initial support will serve at today’s failed resistance levels. Additional support lies at 64.65 cents, 64.02 cents and 63.46 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.