Corn
Price action: December corn closed down 1 1/2 cents to $4.05 1/2 and nearer the daily low. For the week, December corn lost 5 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn trading was somewhat muted today and will likely be the same on Monday, ahead of what is arguably the data point of the month for the grain markets—Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect U.S. corn production this year at 15.991 billion bushels, with an average yield of 184.3 bushels an acre.
Selling interest in corn was limited today as USDA reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 125,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
30-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly old-crop U.S. corn sales of 170,400 MT for 2024-25 for the week ended July 31, down 50% from the previous week and down 71% from the four-week average. However, new-crop corn sales totaled a solid 3.163 MMT. The 2025-26 marketing year corn export sales pace is now more than double the rate seen one year ago at this time. It may be difficult for corn market bears to continue to press the downside in corn futures if the U.S. corn export sales pace continues to be strong.
90-day outlook: October will find the U.S. corn harvest in full swing, and with a bumper crop expected, rallies and an extended price uptrend in corn futures will likely be limited by commercial hedging pressure. A better handle on the size of the U.S. crop will also be likely at that time, with combines rolling and yields from farmers rolling in.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 1/4 cents to $9.87 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week down 1 3/4 cents. September soybean meal closed up 50 cents at $276.60 and near mid-range. For the week, September meal rose $5.70. September soybean oil fell 79 points to 52.71 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. On the week, September bean oil lost 177 points.
5-day outlook: The big event of the week for the grain markets is Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Trading Monday is likely to be subdued ahead of that report. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect U.S. soybean production at 4.371 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.0 bushels an acre.
The soybean meal futures market had a good week this week, as spreaders unwinding long bean oil, short meal trades was featured. If meal continues to perform well next week, that would be an early sign the soybean futures market has also put in a near-term low.
30-day outlook: Weather still leans price-bearish for soybeans and such will likely be the case for at least the next two weeks. World Weather Inc. today said the U.S. Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for soybean crop development “and very high production potentials.” However, some areas will dry down significantly during the next two weeks, but a combination of favorable subsoil moisture in place, a lack of widespread heat for at least another week, and at least some rain “will ensure crops have adequate soil moisture into at least late this month.” Warmer to much warmer-than-normal temperatures will be most common through the next week, but widespread, excessive heat is not expected through the period.
90-day outlook: Soybean bulls continue to anxiously await new-crop purchases from China. If the U.S. and China agree to a trade deal in the coming weeks or few months, the soybean market likely would get a significant price boost. Conversely, a deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations would be a bearish weight on the soybean futures complex.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 4 cents to $5.35, nearer the daily low and for the week down 2 cents. December HRW wheat futures lost 4 1/2 cents to$5.37 1/4, near the daily low and for the week down 1 1/4 cents. December spring wheat futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.97 1/4, and 1/2 cent on the week.
5-day outlook: After an early-week swoon to contract lows, the winter wheat futures markets posted decent rebounds Wednesday and Thursday and saw modest corrective pullbacks today. Key for the bulls next week will be to show some price strength to better suggest near-term market price bottoms are in place. Wheat traders will be looking to the corn market for daily price direction.
The data point of the week for the grain markets will be the midday Tuesday USDA supply and demand report. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect all U.S. wheat production to come in at 1.925 billion bushels.
World Weather Inc. today said rainfall in Saskatchewan and Manitoba this week and weekend should translate into some additional improvement for a part of the wheat crop. “However, most of the precipitation will fall too late in the driest areas to seriously change production.” U.S. wheat harvesting weather has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains is winding down. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year, while irrigated crops likely performed normally. Meantime, most of the wheat in Europe and Russia is being harvested and will not likely respond well to rain in the future. Drier weather coming up in the central and northeast parts of the continent will improve field working conditions. Spring crops in Europe are developing relatively well except in southern parts of the U.K., France and the lower Danube River Basin where dryness is an issue.
30-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. wheat sales of 737,800 MT for the week ended July 31, up 25% from the previous week and four-week average. Sales exceeded the pre-report range of 350,000 to 600,000 MT. U.S. wheat sales aborad will need to continue to improve in the coming week to get the winter wheat markets out of their slump and possibly begin sustainable price uptrends.90-day outlook: U.S. winter wheat harvest will be mostly completed in the coming weeks, which suggests less commercial hedging pressure on futures prices. The wheat market bulls will be looking to new trade deals between the U.S. and other countries, including China, to potentially boost U.S. wheat export prospects in the coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 17 points to 66.60 cents, nearer the session high after hitting a four-month low early on. For the week, December cotton rose 24 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market bulls made a “save” today by closing prices near the daily high after solid losses and a four-month low hit early on. Good follow-through buying early next week would begin to suggest a near-term market price bottom is in place.
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report will be the feature of the week for the cotton market. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows an average production estimate of 14.55 million bales, down just slightly from the July USDA report.
30-day outlook: Weather down the stretch will be important for the U.S. cotton crop’s production potential. World Weather Inc. today said unirrigated West Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Hotter temperatures are likely over the next three days and that will be good for irrigated fields, but dryland crops that need rain in the southwest will be more stressed by the heat and rainfall is expected to be minimal. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential in the Blacklands and upper coast. South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested. U.S. Delta crops are drying down and timely rain is needed. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation have received significant rain recently and more will fall to support long term crop development. Meantime, Argentina cotton weather will be dry biased for much of the coming week to ten days favoring late season harvest progress. The same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring areas in Brazil.
90-day outlook: The fall apparel season is approaching. The U.S. stock indexes are not that far below their recent record highs and the Federal Reserve is expected to lower U.S. interest rates in September. These are bullish elements for the cotton futures market in the coming months. The fly in the ointment for the cotton bulls would be if the months of September and October turn out to be turbulent for the U.S. stock market. History shows these two months can be rocky for stock market bulls.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.