Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $4.31 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a corrective bounce today, also supported by the solid rally in the winter wheat futures markets.
Also price-friendly for futures, USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 2.07 MMT during the week ended Feb.5, up 99% from the previous week and up 6% from the four-week average. Net sales were well above analysts’ expected pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
Chinese importers have booked about 45 cargoes, or at least 2.5 MMT of U.S. sorghum over the past three months, according to two Asian traders familiar with the deals. The purchases are three times more than the quantity shipped in 2025 as buyers have stepped up feed grain purchases following rains that damaged domestic production.
World Weather Inc. today said rain expected in southern Brazil and eastern Argentina as well as Uruguay Thursday through the middle part of next week will reduce crop stress and improve yield potentials. Follow up rain will be needed and some is expected. Southeastern Argentina may see a return of drier than usual weather following this period of time.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.17 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.36 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.25 1/4 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans gained 13 1/4 cents to $11.37 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a 2.5-month high. March soybean meal gained $4.90 to $307.90, near the session high and hit a seven-week high. March soybean oil rose 49 points to 57.54, nearer the session high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean, meal and bean oil markets today saw fresh buying interest after a report on a potential extended trade truce between the U.S. and China fueled hopes for additional purchases of American agricultural products, including soybeans. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could extend their trade truce by as much as a year when they meet in Beijing in April, the South China Morning Post reported Thursday and as reported by Bloomberg.
USDA today reported daily sales of 108,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to Egypt during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly soybean sales totaled 281,800 MT, a marketing-year low, during the week ended Feb. 5. Net sales were down 80% from the previous week and the four-week average and were short of the pre-report range of 300,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
Conab reported Brazil will reap a record 178 MMT soybean crop in 2025-26, which is 2 MMT higher than USDA’s production peg on Tuesday.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms and increases in soil moisture through next Monday before additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Sat., Feb. 21 slow drying rates. Fieldwork will be slowed by rain into Monday with farming activity likely to advance well when rain becomes less frequent and lighter Tuesday into Feb. 21 followed by infrequent rain and favorable conditions for farming activity Feb. 22-26. Many areas will begin to dry down starting Tuesday and developing crops will need additional rain soon as moisture from rain into Monday is lost to evaporation. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed. Argentina will see an important period of wetter weather during the next week and stress to crops will be eased in southern, central, and eastern areas where soil moisture is mostly short. Much of the remainder of the southern half of Argentina will be dry and will see increasing crop stress. Rain Sunday into next Thursday should favor central and northern Argentina, where the drier areas will benefit from the moisture, while crops in southern Argentina see at least some benefit from rain..
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum, amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.72 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.41 1/2 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at $11.20 and then at $11.10.
Soybean meal bulls now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $288.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $309.80 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $302.90 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 59.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 52.61 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 57.96 cents and then at 58.50 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 56.27 cents and then at this week’s low of 55.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 15 1/4 cents to $5.52 1/2, near the daily high and hit a 2.5-month high. March HRW gained 15 1/2 cents to $5.54, near the session high and hit a six-month high. March spring wheat futures rose 7 1/4 cents to $5.77 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw solid technical buying as price uptrends on the daily bar charts were confirmed. Gains in corn and soybean futures today also inspired the wheat market bulls.
Also price-friendly for wheat futures, USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 488,000 MT for the week ended Feb. 5, up 31% from the previous week and up 14% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the high end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way. Rain in the southern U.S. Plains, Delta and interior southeastern states Friday through the weekend will improve soil conditions while temperatures are warm to induce some greening. Meantime, recent bitter cold (including that of today) in eastern Ukraine and a minor part of Russia’s Southern Region may have led to a little winter crop damage because of limited snow cover. The area impacted was quite small and unlikely to have a big impact on overall production. Warming is now predicted for the coming week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today, amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.22 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.68. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at today’s low of $5.36.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at this week’s low of $5.25 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 30 points to 62.29 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw some short covering. Gains in the grain markets also provided some support to the fiber. A sell off in the U.S. stock market today did limit gains in cotton futures.
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, down 3.2 percent from 2025, according to the National Cotton Council’s 45th annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. Upland cotton intentions are 8.8 million acres, down 3.4 percent from 2025, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 161,000 acres represent a 14.0 percent increase. Based on average abandonment rates and yields, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 7.1 million acres for 2026 with an estimated crop of 12.7 million bales. This includes 12.3 million upland bales and 393,000 ELS bales.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 231,000 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--down 8 percent from the previous week and down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (95,400 RB), Turkey (45,800 RB) and Pakistan (27,600 RB). Net sales of 50,900 RB for 2026/2027 were reported. Exports of 188,600 RB were down 20 percent from the previous week and down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (69,700 RB), Pakistan (32,900 RB), Bangladesh (20,700 RB), Turkey (18,800 RB), and China (7,000 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another ten days. West Texas needs rain and some will fall Friday and Saturday. Some of that rain in West Texas will also benefit crop areas in the Blacklands while the Coastal Bend production region stays dry. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. However, only a few spotty showers are anticipated. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region and will be less than usual this spring. Drought will continue from parts of Florida, southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia, while rain falls from the Delta into the Carolinas this coming weekend. Some rain will reach into the drought region; though much more moisture will be needed to end drought. Topsoil moisture will improve.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 64.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 62.45 cents and then at 63.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 60.90 cents and then at 60.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.